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The Strait of Hormuz remains Iran's most powerful bargaining chip in negotiations with the United States, and Tehran is unlikely to agree to a swift reopening of the strategic waterway as demanded by President Donald Trump, according to a former senior Dutch naval commander. The assessment comes as fresh US-Iranian strikes overnight underscore the fragility of the April 2026 ceasefire and the immense difficulty of restoring navigation through one of the world's most critical energy chokepoints.
What is the Strait of Hormuz and Why is it Critical?
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow, 39-kilometer-wide waterway connecting the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman. It is the only maritime passage from the Gulf to the open ocean, making it a vital artery for global energy supplies. According to the International Energy Agency, roughly 20 million barrels of oil and oil products — about 20% of the world's total — along with 20% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments, passed through the strait daily in 2025. The annual value of these flows is estimated at nearly $600 billion.
For Gulf producers including Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates, the strait is the sole outlet to international markets. Any disruption sends shockwaves through global energy prices and threatens the economic stability of energy-importing nations, particularly in Asia and Europe.
Iran's Strategic Leverage: 'They Won't Give It Away'
Ben Bekkering, former deputy commander of the Royal Netherlands Navy and former military representative to NATO, told BNR Nieuwsradio that the Strait of Hormuz is Iran's most important trump card — alongside the nuclear file — in ongoing negotiations with Washington. 'They won't give that trump card away easily,' Bekkering said. He noted that the legal status of the strait is complex. Trump has claimed the waterway is part of international waters, but Bekkering countered: 'That's not entirely correct. For a strait, the principle of innocent passage applies.' Even though the strait falls within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, international law guarantees the right of innocent passage — a right Iran has effectively suspended since hostilities erupted in February 2025.
Iran has used the strait as a pressure tool, deploying drones, missiles, and fast attack boats to strike at least 24 commercial vessels, reducing daily traffic by approximately 95% at the peak of the crisis. The 2026 Strait of Hormuz crisis has become the defining geopolitical flashpoint of the year.
US-Iran Strikes Continue Despite Ceasefire Talks
Despite a Pakistan-mediated ceasefire reached on April 8, 2026, and ongoing peace negotiations in Qatar, both sides continue to exchange fire. On May 26, the US military carried out what it called 'self-defense strikes' near the strait, targeting Iranian missile launch sites and boats attempting to lay mines south of Larak Island. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) claimed it downed a US MQ-9 Reaper drone and reserved the right to retaliate. Oil prices surged on the news, with Brent crude rising approximately 3% to $97.16 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate reaching $91.43 per barrel.
Bekkering warned that if Iran refuses to back down, the only remaining option is to fight through and escort armed ships — a risky proposition. 'But the risk seems far too great for that,' he added. Trump has threatened on Truth Social that if no deal is reached, there will be a return to 'bigger and stronger than ever before' conflict. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has stated the strait must be opened 'one way or the other.'
Europe's Dilemma: Two Phases, No Unified Response
European nations are struggling to formulate a coherent response. Bekkering explained that Europe is thinking in two phases: the war phase and the ceasefire phase. In the latter, there is room for European maneuvering — but between the two lies a messy transitional period. 'If that messy phase lasts a long time, the global community will keep suffering. And what will we do then? Clearly, if there's still war, we send nothing. If there's a ceasefire, we send a minehunter,' he said.
The Netherlands has already deployed the Zr.Ms. Willemstad minehunter to the Mediterranean Sea, where it will join NATO's Standing Mine Countermeasures Group 2 by mid-June 2026. The ship is positioned for possible rapid deployment to the Persian Gulf if political conditions allow. The Dutch government is also preparing a search, diving, and explosive ordnance disposal team that could operate from a support vessel. Ministers Dilan Yesilgöz (Defense) and Tom Berendsen (Foreign Affairs) informed parliament that the deployment is linked to US-led efforts to keep the strait open, but that a peace agreement with Iran ensuring safe conditions is a prerequisite.
At the European level, discussions are underway about expanding Operation Aspides — the EU's defensive naval mission originally launched in 2024 to protect Red Sea shipping from Houthi attacks — to cover the Strait of Hormuz. However, EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has urged member states to contribute more assets under the current mandate, stopping short of proposing entry into the strait. Germany has questioned Aspides' effectiveness in its existing theater, and any mandate change requires unanimous agreement from all 27 member states. EU naval operations in the Persian Gulf remain hampered by national interests that prevent a unified European mission from taking shape.
Impact on Global Energy Markets and Security
The prolonged closure of the Strait of Hormuz has had severe economic consequences. Oil prices have been highly volatile, swinging between supply-disruption fears and optimism over a potential deal. Citi analysts noted that while markets are pricing out worst-case scenarios, uncertainty over the timing of any agreement is keeping central banks alert, with policymakers weighing tighter monetary policies in response to energy-driven inflation risks.
For Europe, the stakes are particularly high. The EU relies on the strait for a significant portion of its energy imports. The European energy security crisis has been exacerbated by the disruption, with prices for natural gas and oil rising sharply. The IEA has warned of an unprecedented energy supply crisis if the situation persists.
Bekkering emphasized that Dutch and European interests are directly affected. 'Ultimately, our interests are also hit by this,' he said, referring to the need for free passage through the strait. The Dutch deployment, while modest, signals NATO's readiness to act — but only when the conditions are right.
FAQ: Strait of Hormuz Crisis
Why is Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz?
Iran is using the strait as a strategic bargaining chip in negotiations with the US over sanctions relief, nuclear issues, and regional security. By disrupting the world's most important oil chokepoint, Tehran exerts maximum pressure on Washington and its allies.
How much oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz daily?
Approximately 20 million barrels of oil and oil products — about 20% of global consumption — along with 20% of LNG shipments, transit the strait daily. The annual value is estimated at nearly $600 billion.
What is the legal status of the Strait of Hormuz?
The strait falls within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, but international law guarantees the right of innocent passage for all vessels. Iran has not ratified UNCLOS but has historically recognized transit rights — rights it has now effectively suspended.
Is Europe sending naval forces to the Strait of Hormuz?
European nations are debating options. The Netherlands has deployed a minehunter to the Mediterranean for potential future use. The EU is considering expanding Operation Aspides to cover the strait, but no mandate change has been agreed due to divisions among member states.
What would happen if the strait remains closed?
Prolonged closure would cause severe global energy shortages, skyrocketing oil and gas prices, and potential recessions in energy-importing economies. The IEA has warned of an unprecedented energy supply crisis, and central banks may be forced to tighten monetary policy to combat inflation.
Sources
- BNR Nieuwsradio interview with Ben Bekkering, former deputy commander Royal Netherlands Navy
- BBC News: Strait of Hormuz: The world's most important oil chokepoint
- CNBC: Oil prices surge after US strikes in Iran revive Hormuz turmoil fears
- Al Jazeera: US strikes Iran again: What we know and is the ceasefire over?
- Dutch Times: Dutch minehunter deployed to Mediterranean for potential operations against Iran
- NLTimes: Dutch mine hunter en route for possible Strait of Hormuz deployment
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