US and Iran Dampen Hopes for Quick Deal to End War

Optimism Fades as Both Sides Signal Caution

Hopes for a swift end to the conflict between the United States and Iran have been tempered after both sides signaled that no immediate deal is imminent. US President Donald Trump told reporters late Sunday that his negotiators have been instructed not to rush into an agreement, while Iran's Foreign Ministry confirmed that while substantial progress has been made on many points, a final deal is not yet at hand.

The cautious tone marks a sharp reversal from Saturday, when Trump posted on his Truth Social platform that nearly all countries in the region, including Israel, had agreed on the broad outlines of a potential accord. Key elements reportedly included the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil shipments. Iran was not present at those consultations, though Pakistan — which serves as a mediator between the two nations — was involved.

Speaking at the start of a visit to India on Monday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio warned that Washington would deal with Iran in a "different way" if a satisfactory agreement fails to materialize. The US maximum pressure campaign against Iran has been a cornerstone of Trump's foreign policy since his return to office.

Key Sticking Points in Negotiations

According to Iran's Tasnim news agency, several major hurdles remain. Tehran insists that the United States has not yet accommodated Iran on key demands, including access to frozen Iranian bank assets held abroad. Other critical issues under discussion include:

• Lebanon ceasefire: The end of hostilities between Israel and Iran's ally Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• Uranium stockpile: Iran's surrender of its stockpile of highly enriched uranium.
• Nuclear and missile programs: The future of Iran's nuclear energy and ballistic missile development.

An Iranian diplomat told state news agency ISNA that Tehran is willing to negotiate on its nuclear program and enriched uranium stockpile — but only if international sanctions are lifted and the blockade on its banking assets is removed. This mirrors the 2015 JCPOA nuclear deal framework, which collapsed after the US withdrawal in 2018.

Oil Markets React to Potential Breakthrough

Despite the political uncertainty, oil markets have reacted positively to the prospect of a ceasefire. Crude oil prices fell by 6% on Monday, returning to levels last seen two weeks ago. Analysts attribute the drop to growing expectations that a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could restore normal oil flows from the Gulf states.

"Despite all the warnings and risks, there is now light at the end of the tunnel," a market analyst told Reuters. However, experts caution that even if a deal is reached, it will take many months for oil and gas exports from the Gulf to return to pre-conflict levels. The global energy market impact of the Iran conflict has been severe, with prices spiking sharply since hostilities escalated.

Regional and International Dynamics

The conflict has drawn in multiple regional actors. Israel, a key US ally, has been closely monitoring the negotiations. Reports earlier this month indicated that Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a heated phone call regarding Iran, underscoring the delicate balance between Washington's diplomatic efforts and Tel Aviv's security concerns.

Pakistan continues to play a mediating role, leveraging its unique relationship with both Washington and Tehran. Iran has no formal diplomatic relations with the United States since 1980, with Pakistan acting as Iran's protecting power in the US, while Switzerland represents American interests in Tehran.

"The negotiations are complex and involve many moving parts," said a senior US official speaking on condition of anonymity. "We are committed to a diplomatic solution, but it must be a good deal that addresses all our concerns."

FAQ: US-Iran Conflict and Negotiations

What is the current status of US-Iran negotiations?

Both sides have confirmed progress but say no deal is imminent. Key sticking points include Iran's nuclear program, frozen assets, and the situation in Lebanon.

Why is the Strait of Hormuz important?

The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow waterway between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman through which about 20% of the world's oil passes. Its closure during the conflict caused global oil prices to spike.

What role does Pakistan play?

Pakistan serves as Iran's protecting power in the United States and has been mediating between the two sides, participating in talks that Iran did not attend directly.

Could a deal affect oil prices?

Yes. Oil prices dropped 6% on renewed hopes of a ceasefire, but analysts warn that full recovery of Gulf exports could take months even after a deal is signed.

What is the 'maximum pressure' campaign?

It is the US policy of imposing harsh economic sanctions on Iran to force it to negotiate on its nuclear program, missile development, and regional activities. The policy was reinstated under Trump's second term.

Sources

This article is based on reporting from NOS, Reuters, Tasnim, ISNA, and statements from the White House and US State Department. Historical context drawn from Wikipedia's Iran–United States relations entry.