Critical Minerals: 54 Nations Break China's Rare Earth Grip

In February 2026, the United States hosted the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, DC, convening representatives from 54 nations and the European Commission. Secretary of State Marco Rubio launched the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE), the successor to the Minerals Security Partnership, as a direct challenge to China's dominance in critical minerals processing. With over $30 billion in mobilized financing and 11 new bilateral frameworks, the initiative aims to restructure global strategic mineral supply chains.

What is FORGE?

FORGE is a plurilateral coalition created to counter non-market practices in critical minerals trade. Building on the MSP, it establishes a preferential trade-and-investment zone with coordinated price floors to deter adversarial market manipulation, according to the U.S. State Department guiding principles. It operates through two working groups: Projects Investment and Policy Coordination. The ministerial also announced Project Vault, a nearly $12 billion strategic reserve backed by the Export-Import Bank.

China's Rare Earth Dominance and 2026 Export Controls

China controls roughly 90% of global rare earth processing capacity, plus 80% of tungsten and 60% of antimony. In summer 2026, Beijing tightened export controls twice within five weeks, restricting shipments to U.S. and EU companies and triggering price spikes of up to sixfold. According to a multi-institutional analysis, over 80% of European companies depend on Chinese inputs, and rebuilding independent supply chains could take 20–30 years. China export controls have weaponized control rather than scarcity.

FORGE's Global Footprint

Latin America's Lithium Triangle

Argentina, Chile, and Bolivia hold about 56% of identified global lithium resources. FORGE bilateral frameworks with Argentina and other partners seek to secure value-added processing, not just raw ore, amid resource nationalism and Chinese investment in direct lithium extraction.

Africa's Critical Minerals Corridor

Africa holds about 30% of proven global critical mineral reserves. The U.S. has financed the Lobito Corridor rail link and backed Orion's $9 billion purchase of a 40% stake in Glencore's DRC copper and cobalt projects. Seven African nations attended the ministerial, including the DRC, Zambia, and Guinea.

Australia's First Independent Rare Earth Processing Plant

Australia, the world's fourth-largest rare earth producer, exports 100% of its concentrates offshore. In Q1 2026, the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation opened the country's first open-access rare earth processing facility in Sydney, processing clay-hosted rare earths and reducing dependence on rare earth processing in China.

Can FORGE Break China's Grip?

Experts are divided. FORGE's bilateral leverage and price floors are ambitious, but China's 30-year head start in processing technology and subsidies means Western alternatives cost 150–250% more. The Atlantic Council notes key questions over membership and whether bilateral deals can become genuine plurilateral coordination. A narrowing 12–18 month window forces decisive action.

Expert Perspectives

China's 2026 export controls are fundamentally redrawing the global supply chain map. The West faces managed dependence, costly independence, or a hybrid model, a Rare Earth Exchanges analysis concludes.

FAQ

What is FORGE in critical minerals?

FORGE is the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement, launched in February 2026 by the U.S. with 54 nations to diversify critical mineral supply chains away from China.

Why does China dominate rare earth processing?

China controls about 90% of processing capacity due to decades of subsidies and state investment, giving it pricing power over materials used in EVs, wind turbines, and defense systems.

How much financing did the U.S. mobilize?

The U.S. announced over $30 billion, including $10 billion from the Export-Import Bank for Project Vault, plus private-sector deals.

Can FORGE succeed against China?

Success is uncertain; Western alternatives cost 150–250% more, and rebuilding supply chains could take 20–30 years, but FORGE's coordinated price floors and investment may accelerate diversification.

Conclusion

The critical minerals power shift is underway, but China's entrenched processing dominance remains a formidable barrier. Whether FORGE can translate 54-nation alignment into a resilient, diversified supply chain will define the pace of the energy transition and tech supply chain security for decades.