Fertilizer Crisis 2026: Hormuz Conflict Hits Food Security

In March 2026, the Middle East conflict has morphed into a global fertilizer crisis that is reshaping food security from the Horn of Africa to the soy fields of Brazil. Disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz—triggered by U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran that began on February 28, 2026—have halted roughly one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade just as Northern Hemisphere farmers prepare for spring planting, according to CNBC.

The Strait of Hormuz: a chokepoint for global food

The strait normally carries about 30% of global urea exports, 25% of ammonia and nearly 50% of traded sulfur—key inputs for nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers. Kpler reported 23 fertilizer-laden vessels stranded in the Gulf by early March, with no cargoes transiting since March 7. “The industry is in paralysis,” one analyst told The New York Times. QatarEnergy declared force majeure on urea production, while China restricted exports, tightening the global fertilizer supply chain.

Sub-Saharan Africa and Brazil face the sharpest blow

Sub-Saharan Africa imports more than 90% of its fertilizer, making it the most exposed region. Brazil—the world’s largest fertilizer importer, sourcing 85% of its needs abroad—faces what its Agriculture Ministry calls an “extremely high risk” of shortages for the 2026/27 crop cycle, according to The Rio Times. Timely urea and phosphate deliveries are weeks behind schedule, risking yield losses for maize, rice and wheat, with ripple effects on global soybeans, corn and sugar.

From fertilizer to food inflation: the cascading impact

Fertilizer prices have surged. FOB granular urea in Egypt jumped to about $700 per metric ton from $400–$490 before the war, while ammonia rose roughly 20%, according to CNBC. Because nitrogen cannot be skipped for a season, analysts warn the damage could exceed the Russia-Ukraine shock. The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook 2026 says Hormuz disruptions are pushing food prices higher through energy, fertilizer and shipping costs, reigniting global food inflation 2026.

Russia and El Niño turn a bad year worse

The fertilizer shock is not happening in isolation. Russia continues to weaponize food exports, with Russian and Ukrainian port strikes disrupting about a quarter of global grain trade, while an impending El Niño weather pattern could bring drought to key growing regions. Oxford Economics projects global food prices will rise 12% in 2026 and 5% in 2027, with fertilizer prices up 22% this year, according to Common Dreams. That convergence of war, supply-chain failure and extreme weather pushes the food system toward its most precarious juncture since 2022.

What experts are saying

FAO Director-General QU Dongyu warned in May 2026 that fertilizer scarcity will reduce crop yields and tighten food supplies through late 2026 and into 2027. “Fertilizers must be applied at specific crop-cycle moments—delays of even a few weeks force farmers to cut use, permanently reducing yields,” he said, according to the FAO. His plan calls for keeping supply chains functioning, diversifying fertilizer sources and accelerating sustainable agriculture. The FAO fertilizer warning echoes analysts who say there is no strategic urea reserve to cushion the blow.

FAQ

Why is the Strait of Hormuz important for fertilizer?

It carries about one-third of global seaborne fertilizer trade, including 30% of urea exports and 25% of ammonia.

Which countries are most vulnerable?

Sub-Saharan Africa (over 90% import dependence), Brazil (85%), India, Bangladesh, Thailand, Indonesia and Egypt.

How much have fertilizer prices risen?

Egyptian urea jumped from $400–$490 to about $700 per metric ton, while ammonia rose roughly 20% by late March 2026.

Will food supplies recover if the conflict ends?

Not quickly. The FAO warns that missed fertilizer application windows cannot be recovered, so yield losses will persist through late 2026 and into 2027.

What happens next

Even if diplomacy opens the strait, agronomists say the damage is already locked in for the 2026 harvest because missed fertilizer applications cannot be made up. Governments are scrambling to diversify imports and expand domestic production, but those efforts take years. The 2026 global food crisis remains a live threat, measured in crop yields, household budgets and hunger.