Critical Minerals 2026: FORGE, $30B Financing | Geopolitics

In February 2026, the United States hosted the Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, bringing together 54 nations and the European Commission to confront a stark reality: China is projected to supply over 60% of refined lithium and cobalt and roughly 80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earths by 2035. The gathering marked a fundamental geopolitical inflection point, launching the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE) and mobilizing over $30 billion in financing to reshape global supply chains.

What Are Critical Minerals and Why Do They Matter?

Critical minerals—including lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, and rare earth elements—are raw materials essential to energy, defense, and advanced technology, yet vulnerable to supply disruption. The now-defunct Minerals Security Partnership attempted to coordinate allied investment, but FORGE represents a more muscular successor built around trade leverage and price stabilization. According to the International Energy Agency, top three producers held an 86% market share in refining in 2024, up from 82% in 2020.

The February 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial: Key Outcomes

On February 4, 2026, Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President JD Vance led the ministerial, which produced three headline results: the launch of FORGE, 11 new bilateral critical minerals frameworks, and over $30 billion in U.S. government financing support. The 11 agreements—with Argentina, Peru, the Philippines, the UAE, the UK, and Uzbekistan, among others—brought the total to 21 deals in five months. Officials called it a direct response to supply chains vulnerable to political coercion, aligning with a broader push for critical minerals bilateral frameworks.

FORGE Replaces the Minerals Security Partnership

FORGE—the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement—succeeds the Minerals Security Partnership as a plurilateral coalition creating a preferential trade-and-investment zone for critical minerals. It introduces coordinated reference prices and adjustable tariffs, with South Korea chairing through June 2026. Unlike its predecessor, FORGE favors a 'membership by trade' model over pooled investment.

11 New Bilateral Frameworks and $30 Billion in Financing

Financing includes a $10 billion Export-Import Bank loan for Project Vault, a $12 billion public-private strategic reserve backed by Boeing, GM, and GE Vernova. The Pax Silica partnership targets silicon and rare earths, while a Glencore-Orion MOU advances copper and cobalt in the DRC. This firepower aims to de-risk projects facing 16–29 year development timelines.

China's Enduring Dominance and the Race to Counter It

China's grip on refining remains formidable. The IEA projects China will supply over 60% of refined lithium and cobalt and roughly 80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earths by 2035. Export controls on gallium and germanium in 2025 showed how refining dominance becomes leverage. Rebuilding processing capacity takes 5–7 years and costs $500 million to $1 billion per plant, while China's 15th Five-Year Plan doubles down on China rare earth export controls.

New Entrants: UAE and Saudi Arabia Reshape the Map

Beyond Western allies, Gulf states have emerged as a third pole. Saudi Arabia and the UAE are deploying over $100 billion via sovereign wealth funds to secure lithium, copper, and rare earths. Saudi Arabia's Manara Minerals holds a $2.5 billion stake in Vale Base Metals, while the UAE's Orion Critical Mineral Consortium targets production-ready projects. This Gulf critical minerals pivot positions them as neutral hubs balancing Washington and Beijing.

Implications for the Energy Transition and Global Alliances

The scramble for critical minerals is reshaping the energy transition itself. Without diversified supply, EV battery costs could spike and defense platforms like F-35 jets face input bottlenecks. FORGE's preferential trade zone and price floors aim to stabilize long-term investment, but risks remain: potential WTO challenges, slow permitting, and storage infrastructure gaps. The narrow 12–18 month window for decisive action underscores the urgency of energy transition supply chains.

Expert Perspectives

Analysts at the Atlantic Council noted that FORGE 'favors a membership by trade model over pooled investment.' A senior U.S. official added, 'We are mobilizing unprecedented resources to secure critical mineral supply chains.'

Frequently Asked Questions

What is FORGE?

A U.S.-led coalition replacing the Minerals Security Partnership, creating a preferential trade zone with coordinated reference prices and tariffs.

How much financing did the ministerial mobilize?

Over $30 billion, including a $10 billion EXIM loan for Project Vault.

Why does China dominate critical minerals refining?

China controls over 60% of refined lithium and cobalt and roughly 80% of graphite and rare earths, built over decades.

What role are Saudi Arabia and the UAE playing?

Saudi Arabia and UAE are deploying over $100 billion to acquire mining assets and build refining capacity.

Conclusion: A Strategic Turning Point

The February 2026 ministerial is not the end of China's dominance but a more coordinated counterweight. Whether FORGE's trade architecture and $30 billion financing translate into processing capacity will decide if 2026 became the year of strategic resource dominance or just another round of strategic mineral reserves announcements.