German State Elections 2026: Merz Future on the Line

German state elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern opened on Sunday, 20 September 2026, with roughly five million voters casting ballots that could decide the political future of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Polls suggest his centre-right CDU is heading for painful losses in both states, just two weeks after the far-right AfD's landslide in Saxony-Anhalt.

What is at stake in the 2026 German state elections?

Although Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern are not Germany's largest regions, the outcome carries national weight. The vote follows the AfD landslide in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September, when the far-right party won 43.8% of the vote — its strongest state result since reunification — while the CDU collapsed to 17.2%. Since then, speculation about replacing Merz has dominated German politics, and local CDU branches have openly distanced themselves from the chancellor.

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern: CDU faces its worst result ever

In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern (MV), long the home state of former CDU chancellor Angela Merkel, the party is on course for its worst-ever result in a state election. Polls put the CDU at just 6–7%, dangerously close to falling below the 5% threshold and losing representation in the Landtag entirely. The race has become a two-way contest between the AfD and the SPD, but local CDU officials also blame dissatisfaction with Merz for the expected defeat.

Why local CDU members blame Merz

Merz was kept out of the local campaign, and in MV the CDU actively distanced itself from its national leader. This reflects the wider Friedrich Merz political crisis that has gripped Berlin since July, when a personnel scandal involving Union parliamentary leader Jens Spahn triggered the first open talk of replacing the chancellor.

Berlin: a fragmented capital race with no clear favourite

In Berlin, the CDU currently holds the mayor's office, but incumbent Kai Wegner is stepping down after a series of false statements about his handling of a major power outage. Four parties are polling between 16% and 21%, with Die Linke narrowly ahead. Even the AfD could become the largest party in the progressive capital, boosted by strong support in outer districts. A left-leaning coalition of Die Linke, the Greens and the SPD is widely seen as realistic, which would hand Merz's party another high-profile loss.

Merz's survival and the 5 p.m. party leadership meeting

Merz knows he is cornered. The CDU executive board is set to meet at 5 p.m. in Berlin, including the party's eight state premiers. According to reports, Merz plans to look his confidants in the eye and ask for their trust. The question, as German media put it, is stützen oder stürzen — support or topple. The powerful state premiers are widely seen as the only group that could push Merz to resign, and that would require them to act unanimously. One of them would likely have to succeed him.

SPD deputy leader Alexander Schweitzer offered a pointed football analogy: If I were a football coach and the board said it wanted to keep me in this way, I would already be thinking about where I put my bag. Measures arise in a particular situation and this evening a certain dynamic will emerge, an anonymous CDU state chair told Die Welt.

What happens next?

Even if the party leadership expresses support tonight, Merz is not automatically safe. This summer the CDU also initially backed the embattled Spahn, only for grassroots outrage to force him out. Merz has cancelled a planned trip to the United States to speak with his parliamentary group in the coming days. Observers point to the German chancellor swap scenarios being debated inside the CDU, including a possible resignation or a confidence vote. Polling stations close at 6 p.m., with exit polls due immediately after and provisional results overnight.

FAQ

What time do polls close in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern?

Polling stations close at 6 p.m. local time on 20 September 2026, with exit polls published immediately after and provisional results expected overnight.

Why is Friedrich Merz under pressure?

Merz's CDU suffered a devastating defeat in Saxony-Anhalt on 6 September 2026, falling to 17.2% while the AfD won 43.8%. With further losses expected in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, senior CDU figures are openly discussing replacing him as chancellor.

Could the AfD win a state government?

The AfD remains under a firewall policy: all mainstream parties refuse to cooperate with it. Even if the AfD becomes the largest party in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern or Berlin, it would struggle to form a governing coalition.

Who might replace Merz as chancellor?

No clear successor has emerged, but the CDU's eight state premiers are considered the most likely pool of candidates. Any chancellor swap would need broad backing from the CDU/CSU parliamentary group and coalition partner SPD.