Critical Minerals 2026: Geopolitical Supply Chain Chessboard

The global race for critical minerals—lithium, cobalt, graphite, rare earths—has entered a decisive new phase in 2026, transforming supply chains into a geopolitical chessboard. China's deepening dominance, a flurry of bilateral mineral deals, and the EU's struggling Critical Raw Materials Act are fragmenting trade into competing blocs, with major implications for the energy transition.

Why 2026 Marks a Turning Point

Two authoritative analyses frame the shift. The UNCTAD Global Trade Update (June 2026) warns that critical and energy transition minerals (CETMs) are reshaping global value chains at an accelerating pace. The ODI critical minerals analysis July 2026 similarly concludes that supply chains are fragmenting into strategic blocs. Since 2020, nearly 100 new export measures have been introduced, and 58 critical mineral agreements have been signed since 2022—evidence of a rapid shift away from globalised trade.

China's Projected Dominance by 2035

China remains the gravitational centre. According to ODI projections, by 2035 China is set to supply over 60% of refined lithium and cobalt, roughly 80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earths, and about 70% of battery-grade manganese. Its 15th Five-Year Plan places critical minerals at the core of industrial strategy, reinforcing Beijing's leverage over downstream manufacturing and the global battery supply chain.

The US Pivot to Bilateral Deals

Washington has abandoned Biden-era multilateralism for targeted bilateral agreements. The second Trump administration is prioritising raw material access through equity stakes, price supports, permitting reform, and defence-linked financing—roughly $2bn for stockpiles, $5bn for the industrial base and $500m for defence credit. Deals with Australia, Japan, Ukraine, the DRC, Malaysia and Thailand reflect a strategy of securing diverse sources while reducing dependence on China. This mirrors broader shifts in US critical minerals policy and industrial security.

Europe's 60 Strategic Projects Face Financing Gaps

The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act has designated 60 Strategic Projects—47 internal and 13 external—to cut import dependencies. But financing lags far behind ambition. The RESourceEU initiative targets only up to €3bn by 2029, and investors are deterred by unclear pricing signals and long permitting timelines. As a result, Europe risks falling further behind in the EU green industrial policy race.

Trade Fragmentation and Export Restrictions

The numbers tell the story: nearly 100 new export measures since 2020—from export quotas to licences and bans—and 58 critical mineral agreements since 2022. Such fragmentation is splitting the world into competing blocs, each prioritising supply security over efficiency. This has direct consequences for the energy transition timeline 2030, as project costs rise and deployment slows.

What Experts Are Saying

The IEA's Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 states that "critical minerals have moved to the heart of global energy and economic security." ODI analysts add that "the second Trump administration prioritises raw material access via domestic policy and bilateral deals," underscoring the strategic shift.

FAQ: Critical Minerals Geopolitics in 2026

What are critical minerals?

Critical minerals are raw materials—such as lithium, cobalt, graphite and rare earths—essential for clean energy, batteries, electronics and defence, but vulnerable to supply disruptions.

Why is China dominant in critical minerals?

China controls a large share of mining, refining and processing. By 2035 it is projected to supply over 60% of refined lithium and ~80% of battery-grade graphite and rare earths.

How is the US responding to China's dominance?

The US is pursuing bilateral deals with Australia, Japan, Ukraine and others, while investing billions in stockpiles, industrial base expansion and domestic mining incentives.

What is the EU's Critical Raw Materials Act?

It is a policy framework that has selected 60 Strategic Projects to diversify supply, but financing remains limited—RESourceEU targets only up to €3bn by 2029.

How do export measures affect supply chains?

Nearly 100 new export measures since 2020 have increased fragmentation, raising costs and delaying the global energy transition.

Future Outlook

As 2026 progresses, the critical minerals chessboard will only become more contested. Whether through the US-EU critical minerals alliance, Chinese industrial expansion or new trade pacts, the race to secure lithium, cobalt and rare earths will define the next decade of global power.