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Since the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted in early March 2026, nearly 1.3 million tonnes of monthly fertilizer shipments have been blocked, triggering a nitrogen price surge that threatens staple crop yields in import-dependent nations from Brazil to Pakistan. This analysis examines how the intersection of Middle East conflict and fertilizer supply concentration is creating a prolonged food security emergency, the policy responses across 146 countries, and what strategic investments in regional fertilizer production and precision agriculture could mean for long-term global resilience.
The Scale of the Disruption
The Strait of Hormuz, a 21-mile-wide chokepoint between the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, normally handles 25% of the world's seaborne oil and 20% of global LNG. But according to UNCTAD, shipping traffic through the strait collapsed by over 95% after Iran blockaded the waterway on February 28, 2026, in retaliation for the US-Israeli air war. The International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC) reports that delays are affecting 1.5–3 million metric tons of fertilizer trade monthly. The region accounts for nearly 49% of global urea exports and about 30% of global ammonia exports, making the blockade a direct hit on the backbone of modern agriculture.
The 2026 Iran war has created a dual blockade: Iran's initial closure was followed by a US naval blockade on April 13. After a brief ceasefire in June, Iran re-closed the strait on June 20, citing continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon. The result is the largest disruption to global energy and fertilizer supply since the 1970s oil crisis.
Price Surges and Market Fallout
The World Bank's fertilizer price index surged over 12% in Q1 2026, reaching its highest level since October 2022. Urea prices soared 80% since February to above $850 per metric ton, as Iran halted ammonia production and Qatar suspended urea and ammonia output. The Qatar Fertiliser Company, which supplies 14% of global urea, has been offline for nearly a month. DAP prices rose over 10% in April amid tightening supply and rising sulfur costs, while MOP prices increased 5% in Q1. The FAO's Food Price Index reached 130.7 points in April 2026, up 2% year-on-year.
Unlike the 2021-2022 fertilizer crisis, which was driven by natural gas prices and the Russia-Ukraine war, this shock is purely supply-side. Other major producers cannot scale up to fill the gap — ammonia plants take years to build and feedstock pipelines cannot be easily rerouted. The shock transmits through the chain from urea and DAP benchmarks to compound NPK and farmgate prices, with a 4–8 week lag in Europe and longer in the Southern Hemisphere.
Vulnerable Nations: Brazil, Pakistan, India
Brazil: 85% Import Dependency
Brazil, the world's largest agricultural exporter and a top fertilizer importer, faces an 'extremely high risk' of shortages for the 2026/27 crop cycle. The country relies on imports for 85% of its fertilizer needs, with a significant portion passing through the Strait of Hormuz. Higher input costs threaten farm profitability for soybeans, corn, and coffee, potentially affecting global food prices. The Brazil fertilizer supply crisis underscores the urgent need for supply chain diversification and domestic production capacity.
Pakistan: Emergency Reviews
Pakistan conducted emergency reviews of food and fertilizer reserves in March 2026, with Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar chairing meetings to assess domestic availability. Food Security Minister Rana Tanveer Hussain assured uninterrupted supply for farmers, but the country remains highly vulnerable to global price spikes. The Fertilizer Review Committee discussed pricing, distribution, and coordination among manufacturers to prevent hoarding.
India: Kharif Season Under Threat
India faces a severe fertilizer crisis ahead of the 2026 Kharif season. The Strait of Hormuz closure blocks India's primary fertilizer import route from the Middle East — the source of half its urea and DAP. Global urea prices have surged 30%. Additionally, Yara International cut production at Indian facilities on March 18 because Qatari LNG feedstock cannot pass through Hormuz, and China tightened export restrictions on March 20. With Kharif planting starting in June, the government has scrambled for alternative supplies from Russia, Belarus, and Morocco. A below-normal monsoon forecast at 92% of average compounds the threat to India's food security for 1.4 billion people.
Global Policy Responses
The FAO's Agrifood Policy Highlights report for April 2026 recorded 585 policy actions across 146 countries in March alone. Key measures include emergency energy responses, subsidies, tax adjustments, strategic reserve releases, and fuel rationing. Approximately 37% of all recorded policy actions in April were linked to the Middle East conflict. About 11% of government responses were fertilizer-related, with 39 countries implementing measures.
Exporting countries like China, Russia, and Türkiye prioritized export restrictions and domestic production support. China extended urea export restrictions until August 2026, while Russia extended fertilizer export quotas until December 2026. Importing countries like India, Bangladesh, and Australia focused on subsidies, stock management, and trade facilitation. India exempted ammonium nitrate from import taxes. Both exporters and importers pursued boosting local fertilizer production and exploring alternatives.
Long-Term Resilience: Precision Agriculture and Regional Production
The crisis has accelerated investments in precision agriculture technologies that reduce fertilizer dependency. In June 2026, President Trump signed an Executive Order directing the EPA, USDA, and HHS to advance regenerative and precision agriculture, building on over $1 billion in federal investment. Precision agriculture — including variable-rate fertilization, soil sensors, and AI-driven analytics — can reduce nitrogen use by 20-30% while maintaining yields.
Countries are also investing in domestic fertilizer production capacity. The global food security investments of 2026 include new ammonia plants in Africa and Southeast Asia, though these take years to come online. The IFA Medium-Term Fertilizer Outlook 2026-2030 projects that supply diversification will accelerate, but the immediate crisis will persist through 2027.
Expert Perspectives
'The fertilizer shock from the Strait of Hormuz is unlike anything we've seen in decades,' says Frida Youssef of UNCTAD. 'Even if the conflict stops tomorrow, restarting production and transport for fertilizers and their components could take weeks — at a crucial moment for planting.'
The American Farm Bureau Federation has called on the US government to ensure safe passage of fertilizer shipments. Fertilizer represents 21% of total corn production costs in the US, and the country relies on imports for over 90% of its potash.
FAQ
How much fertilizer passes through the Strait of Hormuz?
Approximately 1.3 million tonnes of fertilizer and fertilizer raw materials pass through the strait monthly, accounting for nearly 49% of global urea exports and 30% of global ammonia exports.
Which countries are most affected by the fertilizer crisis?
Major import-dependent nations include Brazil, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, and several African countries. These nations rely heavily on Middle Eastern fertilizer exports and face the highest risk of crop yield reductions.
How long will the fertilizer price surge last?
The World Bank projects the fertilizer price index will rise over 30% in 2026 before easing in 2027, assuming exports recover. However, if energy prices stay high and shipping disruptions persist beyond Q3 2026, the crisis could extend into 2028.
What policy responses have countries taken?
The FAO recorded 585 policy actions across 146 countries in March 2026, including export restrictions, subsidies, tax relief, strategic reserve releases, and investments in domestic production capacity.
Can precision agriculture help mitigate the crisis?
Yes, precision agriculture technologies can reduce nitrogen fertilizer use by 20-30% while maintaining yields. The US and other nations are accelerating investments in these technologies as a long-term resilience strategy.
Conclusion
The Strait of Hormuz blockade has exposed the fragility of global fertilizer supply chains. With the full agricultural impact expected to materialize within 6 to 9 months, the crisis of mid-2026 is the most urgent and underreported strategic emergency of the year. Coordinated global action — avoiding export restrictions, maintaining open trade, diversifying supply chains, and investing in early warning systems — is essential to prevent a full-blown food security catastrophe. The 2026 food security outlook depends on whether nations can turn this crisis into a catalyst for lasting resilience.
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