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Introduction: A New Era for Critical Mineral Security
In February 2026, the U.S. State Department convened representatives from 54 nations and the European Commission for the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, D.C. The centerpiece of the event was the launch of the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE), a plurilateral coalition designed to replace the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) with sharper teeth. FORGE mobilizes over $30 billion in U.S. government-backed financing—including $10 billion through Project Vault—to secure supply chains for lithium, cobalt, rare earths, and other minerals essential to artificial intelligence, defense, and battery production. This analysis examines how critical mineral geopolitics has shifted from a cost-minimization logic to a security-first paradigm, with China still controlling over 60% of global refining capacity, the EU racing to meet its Critical Raw Materials Act targets, and emerging players like Saudi Arabia entering the financing space.
Background: The Strategic Imperative
Critical minerals—including rare earth elements, lithium, cobalt, graphite, and gallium—are the building blocks of modern technology. They power electric vehicles, wind turbines, smartphones, fighter jets, and data centers. Yet their supply chains remain dangerously concentrated. China controls roughly 90% of global rare earth refining, 60% of lithium processing, and over 70% of cobalt refining, according to a 2026 report by the Climate Energy Finance group. This concentration creates a strategic vulnerability that the United States and its allies have sought to address through a series of initiatives, beginning with the Minerals Security Partnership in 2022. The Minerals Security Partnership laid the groundwork, but critics argued it lacked enforcement mechanisms. FORGE aims to correct that by creating a preferential trade-and-investment zone with coordinated price floors and adjustable tariffs under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act.
The FORGE Framework: Structure and Mechanisms
Governance and Membership
FORGE is chaired by South Korea, which will hold the position through June 2026. The forum brings together 54 participating nations, including all G7 members, key resource-rich countries like Argentina, Morocco, the Philippines, and the UAE, and major consumer economies such as Japan and the European Union. The forum operates as a plurilateral coalition—meaning members agree to a common set of rules while non-members face higher barriers. This structure is designed to create a critical minerals club that can set market standards and reduce dependency on adversarial suppliers.
Financial Mobilization: Project Vault and Beyond
The U.S. government has mobilized over $30 billion in letters of interest, investments, loans, and other support for strategic mineral projects over the six months leading up to the Ministerial. The flagship initiative is Project Vault, a $10 billion loan from the Export-Import Bank (EXIM) to establish a U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve—a public-private partnership that will stockpile essential raw materials for civilian and defense use. Additional financing comes from the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), the Department of Energy, and the Pentagon. The U.S. critical minerals strategy now treats these resources as a national security asset akin to petroleum reserves.
Trade Mechanisms: Price Floors and Section 232
A key innovation of FORGE is the use of trade policy to enforce market stability. On January 14, 2026, President Trump issued a proclamation under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, adjusting imports of Processed Critical Minerals and Their Derivative Products (PCMDPs). The proclamation found that U.S. reliance on foreign processing—100% net-import reliance for 12 critical minerals—threatens national security. The administration is now exploring reference prices, minimum import prices, quotas, and tariff-rate quotas to create a level playing field for domestic and allied producers. These measures are designed to counter China's ability to flood markets and undercut competitors, a tactic Beijing has used in rare earths and other sectors.
China's Dominance and the De-Risking Challenge
Despite Western efforts, China's grip on critical mineral supply chains remains formidable. According to the Institute for Energy Research, China will retain over 80% of synthetic graphite and rare earth processing capacity through 2030. Beijing has not hesitated to weaponize this leverage: in 2025, it restricted exports of rare earths, germanium, and gallium in response to U.S. semiconductor controls. China has also spent an estimated $120 billion securing overseas mining assets, from lithium projects in Chile to cobalt mines in the Democratic Republic of Congo. The China critical minerals dominance poses a structural challenge that FORGE must overcome.
The EU's Parallel Race
The European Union is pursuing its own strategy under the Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA), which came into effect in May 2024. The CRMA sets ambitious 2030 benchmarks: at least 10% of the EU's annual consumption from domestic extraction, 40% from processing within the EU, and 25% from recycling. It also caps single-country dependency at 65% for any strategic raw material. In March 2026, the Council of the EU adopted a position reinforcing security of supply and circularity. However, the EU faces significant hurdles: permitting for new mines can take 10-15 years, and financing remains fragmented. The bloc has selected 60 Strategic Projects to fast-track, but scaling them to meet demand will require billions more in investment. The EU Critical Raw Materials Act targets remain a work in progress.
Emerging Players: Saudi Arabia's Ambitions
Saudi Arabia is positioning itself as a critical minerals hub under Vision 2030. The kingdom claims $2.5 trillion in mineral reserves, including gold, copper, lithium, and rare earths like dysprosium and neodymium. State-owned Maaden plans to invest $110 billion in mining over the next decade. In a notable development, Saudi Arabia partnered with U.S. company MP Materials and the Department of Defense to build a rare earth refinery, directly challenging China's processing monopoly. The kingdom's sovereign wealth funds are also acquiring assets globally, including stakes in Zambian and DRC mines. While mining is a long game, Saudi Arabia's reliable energy supply and infrastructure expertise could make it a significant player in the critical minerals supply chain diversification landscape.
Impact and Implications
The launch of FORGE and the mobilization of $30 billion represent a decisive inflection point. For the first time, critical mineral supply chains are being treated as a top-tier national security priority, with trade policy, financing, and diplomacy aligned toward a common goal. The immediate impact includes 11 new bilateral critical minerals frameworks signed at the Ministerial, bringing the total to 21 deals in five months. These agreements cover everything from exploration and extraction to processing and recycling. However, the strategic question for 2026 is whether these efforts can achieve tangible supply chain diversification before dependency becomes a vulnerability in the next crisis. Analysts at the ODI note that China is projected to supply over 60% of refined lithium and cobalt through 2035, meaning the window for de-risking is narrowing.
Expert Perspectives
"FORGE represents a shift from an 'America First' focus toward broader international coordination," said a senior State Department official who spoke on condition of anonymity. "We recognize that securing critical mineral supply chains requires collaboration across a widening set of global partners." At the Atlantic Council, analysts described FORGE as a mechanism to "link disparate bilateral deals into a functioning plurilateral system covering two-thirds of the global economy." However, critics warn that price floors and tariffs could spark retaliation from China and raise costs for downstream industries. The BCG consultancy argues that isolated efforts are insufficient and that "ecosystems" of coordinated stakeholders are needed to address timing mismatches and scale coordination.
FAQ
What is FORGE?
FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement) is a plurilateral coalition launched in February 2026 as the successor to the Minerals Security Partnership. It aims to create a preferential trade-and-investment zone for critical minerals, with coordinated price floors and adjustable tariffs to counter market manipulation by adversarial states.
How much funding has been mobilized?
The U.S. government has mobilized over $30 billion in letters of interest, investments, loans, and other support for strategic mineral projects, including $10 billion through Project Vault for a domestic strategic reserve.
Which countries are participating?
54 countries and the European Commission participated in the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial. South Korea chairs FORGE through June 2026. Key partners include G7 nations, Argentina, Morocco, the Philippines, and the UAE.
How does China's dominance affect these efforts?
China controls over 60% of global refining capacity for most critical minerals, including 90% of rare earth processing. Beijing has used export restrictions as leverage in trade disputes, making supply chain diversification a national security imperative for Western economies.
What are the EU's targets under the Critical Raw Materials Act?
The CRMA sets 2030 benchmarks of 10% domestic extraction, 40% domestic processing, and 25% recycling of the EU's annual consumption, with a cap of 65% on any single country's share of supply.
Conclusion: The Road Ahead
The February 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial and the launch of FORGE mark a decisive inflection point in global resource strategy. With $30 billion in committed financing and 54 nations signaling that critical mineral supply chains are now a top-tier national security priority, the architecture for a new resource order is taking shape. Yet the gap between ambition and reality remains wide. China's entrenched position, long lead times for new mines, and the sheer scale of investment required mean that tangible results will take years to materialize. The strategic question for 2026 is whether Western de-risking efforts can achieve critical mass before the next geopolitical crisis exposes the vulnerabilities that remain.
Sources
- U.S. Department of State - 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial
- Atlantic Council - US Critical Minerals Policy Goes Collaborative with FORGE
- European Commission - Critical Raw Materials Act
- EXIM - Project Vault Fact Sheet
- ODI - Critical Minerals Geopolitics in 2026
- CNN - Saudi Arabia's $2.5 Trillion Mineral Reserves
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