FORGE: $30B Plan to Break China's Rare Earth Grip by 2030

On February 4, 2026, Washington launched FORGE—the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement—with 54 nations and the European Commission, backed by more than $30 billion in financing. The goal is simple but staggering: break China's roughly 90% grip on global rare earth processing before 2030. According to the U.S. State Department fact sheet, FORGE succeeds the Minerals Security Partnership and adds 11 new bilateral frameworks, including Argentina, Morocco, Peru and the Philippines. The bloc also aligns with the US-EU Critical Minerals Action Plan signed on April 24, 2026.

What Is FORGE and Why Now?

FORGE is a preferential trade-and-investment coalition chaired by South Korea, designed to reshape a market where China controls about 90% of rare earth processing, 80% of tungsten and 60% of antimony. The trigger was Beijing's 2026 export controls, which caused up to sixfold price spikes abroad and pushed licensing approvals for European firms below 25% in some sectors. Washington calls this "strategic supply-chain defense." As one rare earth market analysis put it, "China weaponizes control rather than scarcity, using temporary, reversible restrictions to maintain leverage."

The Four Strategic Pillars

FORGE rests on four pillars: domestic onshoring, friend-shoring, recycling, and coordinated price floors. Here is how the $30 billion is deployed:

• Domestic onshoring: EXIM's $10 billion Project Vault creates a strategic minerals reserve, alongside $14.8 billion in Letters of Interest.
• Friend-shoring: Projects target the Latin American Lithium Triangle, Africa's Critical Minerals Corridor, and Australia's first independent rare earth processing plant.
• Recycling: Expanded battery recycling economics aim to recover lithium and cobalt from end-of-life batteries, cutting primary demand.
• Price floors: Border-adjusted floors set lithium carbonate at $22/kg (vs. $16.50 spot) and NdPr oxide at $75/kg (vs. $62) to counter Chinese dumping.

FORGE vs. China's Rare Earth Dominance

Can the West Scale Processing by 2030?

The core problem is time. New rare earth separation and magnet facilities typically require 5–7 years to reach commercial scale, and Western projects cost 150–250% more than Chinese equivalents. Australia's Iluka Eneabba refinery targets magnet-grade oxide production by 2027, while ANSTO's Sydney pilot plant opened in early 2026, but analysts warn that meaningful alternative capacity may not arrive until about 2035. The 2026 rare earth export controls have narrowed the window: most assessments give the West 12–18 months to lock in supply agreements before Beijing's leverage becomes structurally entrenched.

Recycling can help. Hydrometallurgical recycling costs of EUR 12–36 per kWh and EU recovery targets could meet a portion of demand by 2030, but recycled volumes cannot yet replace primary mining for heavy rare earths like dysprosium and terbium.

Geopolitical Impact and Risks

If FORGE works, it would reduce defense, EV and renewable-energy vulnerabilities and shift bargaining power toward Latin America, Africa and Australia. If it stalls, China's 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030) will deepen export controls and discourage rival investment. The partnership also raises concerns about resource nationalism and ESG loopholes, echoing earlier debates over the EU Critical Raw Materials Act. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen called the U.S.-EU plan a "strategic necessity," while critics note that price floors merely shift stabilization costs from taxpayers to consumers.

FAQ: FORGE and Rare Earth Supply Chains

What is FORGE?

FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement) is a 54-nation coalition launched in February 2026 to diversify critical minerals supply chains away from China.

How much money is behind FORGE?

More than $30 billion in financing, including a $10 billion EXIM Project Vault reserve and $14.8 billion in Letters of Interest.

Can the West break China's rare earth grip by 2030?

Unlikely for heavy rare earths, where China refines 99%; however, light rare earth and lithium processing could reach meaningful scale by 2027–2030.

What are the price floors on cobalt and lithium?

The U.S.-EU Action Plan explores border-adjusted floors, including lithium carbonate at $22/kg and NdPr oxide at $75/kg, to counter subsidized dumping.

Conclusion

FORGE is the most ambitious Western response yet to China's rare earth stranglehold, but its 2030 target is a race against physics and finance. The $30 billion gamble may secure lithium and cobalt, yet heavy rare earth independence remains a longer, harder fight. As the European Commission announced, execution will determine whether this coalition becomes a genuine supply-chain alternative or a well-funded talking point.