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What is the Makerfield by-election and why does it matter?
Voters in the North West of England are heading to the polls today in the Makerfield by-election, a contest that could determine the political future of Prime Minister Keir Starmer. The seat, a traditional Labour stronghold in Greater Manchester, became vacant after Labour MP Josh Simons resigned to allow Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham to stand for Parliament. Burnham, widely seen as a potential successor to Starmer, is using the by-election as a springboard for a leadership challenge.
The by-election is being held on 18 June 2026, and polls suggest a tight race between Labour's Andy Burnham and Reform UK's Robert Kenyon. According to the latest Convergent poll for The Times, Burnham leads with 49% against Kenyon's 37%, while an Opinium poll shows a narrower 46%-41% margin. The result, expected in the early hours of Friday, could trigger a leadership crisis within the Labour Party.
Background: Labour's leadership crisis deepens
Prime Minister Keir Starmer's approval rating has plummeted to -44.8% as of June 2026, making him the least popular leader among the main parties. His government has faced backlash over the winter fuel payment cut, rising employer National Insurance, and a gifts controversy that has eroded public trust. Nearly six in ten 2024 Labour voters now disapprove of his performance, and 41% of Labour members believe he should resign before the next general election.
Andy Burnham, the 'King of the North,' has positioned himself as the antidote to Labour's woes. The Greater Manchester mayor is known for his down-to-earth style and his successful campaign to secure furlough funding for Northern communities during the COVID-19 pandemic. If elected as MP for Makerfield, Burnham would be required to resign as mayor, signalling his full commitment to a parliamentary career and a potential run for the Labour leadership.
The key candidates and the Reform UK challenge
Andy Burnham (Labour/Co-op)
Burnham, a former Health Secretary under Gordon Brown, is the most popular Labour politician according to recent polls. His campaign focuses on bridging the gap between the wealthy south and the struggling north of England. He promises to invest in public services, create jobs, and restore trust in politics. 'I'm standing to give the people of Makerfield a real voice in Parliament and to fight for the changes our country desperately needs,' Burnham said at a campaign rally.
Robert Kenyon (Reform UK)
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has made significant gains in the area, winning all eight council wards in Makerfield during the 2026 local elections. Kenyon, a local businessman, is campaigning on a platform of immigration control, cutting taxes, and restoring British sovereignty. 'The people of Makerfield have been let down by Labour for decades. It's time for real change,' Kenyon told supporters. Farage has warned that voting for any party other than Reform is 'effectively voting Labour.'
Other candidates
Fourteen candidates are standing, including Michael Winstanley (Conservative), Jake Austin (Liberal Democrats), Sarah Wakefield (Green), and Rebecca Shepherd (Restore Britain). The right-wing vote is split by the Restore Britain party, led by former Reform MP Rupert Lowe, which could siphon votes from Kenyon and hand Burnham a wider victory.
Impact on UK politics and the Labour leadership
The Makerfield by-election is widely seen as a proxy vote on Starmer's leadership. If Burnham wins decisively, he will likely face pressure to challenge Starmer for the party leadership. Cabinet ministers are reportedly ready to push for Starmer's departure, though divisions remain over timing. A narrow win or a loss for Burnham would strengthen Starmer's position but could deepen internal party strife.
The 2025 gifts controversy and the winter fuel payment backlash have severely damaged Starmer's brand, which was built on integrity and competence. Reform UK's rise reflects a broader disillusionment with the political establishment, a trend seen across Europe. Burnham's ability to connect with working-class voters in the North could be Labour's best hope to counter the Farage phenomenon.
Political analyst Professor Jane Green of the University of Oxford said: 'This by-election is a litmus test for both Labour and Reform UK. A strong Burnham win would signal that Labour can still hold its Red Wall seats, while a close result would confirm Reform's momentum as a serious electoral force.'
What happens next?
The result is expected to be declared around 04:30 BST on Friday 19 June. If Burnham wins, he will become the MP for Makerfield and must resign as Mayor of Greater Manchester, triggering a mayoral by-election. Within Labour, the focus will shift to whether a formal leadership challenge is launched against Starmer. The prime minister has repeatedly said he will stay on, but the pressure is mounting.
For Reform UK, a strong second-place finish or an outright victory would cement Nigel Farage's party as the main opposition to Labour in the North, reshaping the political landscape ahead of the next general election, expected in 2029 or earlier.
Frequently Asked Questions
When is the Makerfield by-election?
The by-election is being held on Thursday, 18 June 2026. Polls close at 22:00 BST, with the result expected in the early hours of Friday.
Why is the Makerfield by-election important?
It is a key test of Labour's popularity under Keir Starmer and could trigger a leadership challenge from Andy Burnham. The result will also show whether Reform UK can break Labour's hold on its traditional Red Wall seats.
Who are the main candidates?
The main candidates are Andy Burnham (Labour/Co-op) and Robert Kenyon (Reform UK). Other candidates include the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Restore Britain.
What are the latest polls saying?
The most recent polls show Burnham leading with 43-49% of the vote, while Kenyon trails with 37-41%. The margin is narrow enough that a Reform UK victory is possible, especially if the right-wing vote unites.
What happens if Andy Burnham wins?
If elected, Burnham will resign as Mayor of Greater Manchester and become an MP. He is then expected to mount a leadership challenge against Keir Starmer, potentially triggering a Labour leadership election.
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