AI Will Create More Jobs Than It Eliminates by 2028: Gartner

AI Job Creation vs. Elimination: A Turning Point in 2028

According to a new Gartner HR research report, beginning in 2028, artificial intelligence will create more jobs than it eliminates. This marks a critical turning point for workforce planning and talent management. The findings, released on May 19, 2026, reveal that while AI will disrupt traditional career paths, organizations that invest in robust internal talent pipelines will be best positioned to meet future demand.

"AI is ultimately going to result in more job gains than losses, but in the process it's going to break down millions of careers," said Kaelyn Lowmaster, Director Analyst in the Gartner HR practice. "As AI changes how work gets done, organizations must rethink how employees gain expertise and experience, or they will find themselves without ready talent for the jobs AI helps create."

How AI Is Reshaping Roles and Structures

A December 2025 Gartner survey of 110 HR leaders found that 40% of organizations have eliminated outdated roles to align with evolving business needs, and nearly half have redesigned team structures to be more cross-functional or agile. AI is accelerating this shift by automating traditional entry-level roles and reducing development opportunities for junior talent. This leaves fewer chances for employees to build judgment and foundational expertise, creating a pressing need for new AI workforce strategies.

From Experience-Based to Skills-Based Advancement

To successfully leverage AI, organizations must shift from experience-based progression to skills-based advancement systems. Gartner identifies two key strategies for CHROs:

• Accelerate Development of New Key Capabilities: CHROs must identify critical skills for next-level success and deprioritize obsolete ones. This includes creating infrastructure for accelerated development, such as simulations and guided practice environments.
• Create Advancement Opportunities Based on Skills, Not Roles: Prioritize skills promise by identifying employees with foundational capabilities, learning agility, and adaptability, even if they lack a perfect match to historical role criteria.

"Performance at one level is no longer a proxy for readiness for more senior roles," said Lowmaster. "With AI support, employees can meet or exceed their current goals without developing the depth of expertise required for more complex roles."

Impact on Career Paths and Talent Pipelines

As AI reshapes roles, internal talent pipelines become critical. The research emphasizes that robust internal advancement pathways are essential to avoid capability gaps. Organizations that fail to adapt risk creating deep skill shortages just as AI-driven growth accelerates. This aligns with broader trends in AI-driven HR transformation, where skills-based hiring is gaining momentum.

The Role of Leaders in Navigating Change

Employees, especially leaders, must be able to navigate ambiguity and guide teams through continuous transformation. The most successful change leaders make change routine, empowering employees to pursue learning opportunities as AI reshapes work. Gartner's report, "AI Is Breaking Careers: Reset Your Approach to Internal Talent Advancement," provides further guidance for CHROs.

FAQ: AI and Jobs in 2026

When will AI create more jobs than it eliminates?

According to Gartner, beginning in 2028, AI will create more jobs than it eliminates, marking a net positive for employment.

How many organizations are eliminating roles due to AI?

A December 2025 Gartner survey found that 40% of organizations have eliminated outdated roles to align with AI-driven business needs.

What is skills-based advancement?

Skills-based advancement focuses on promoting employees based on their capabilities and learning agility rather than their previous experience or job titles.

Why are internal talent pipelines important for AI?

Robust internal talent pipelines ensure organizations have ready access to skilled workers for the new jobs AI creates, preventing capability gaps.

What should CHROs prioritize for AI readiness?

CHROs should prioritize accelerating development of critical skills and creating advancement opportunities based on skills, not roles.

Sources

Gartner Press Release: AI Will Create More Jobs Than It Eliminates Beginning in 2028