FORGE: $30B Critical Minerals Realignment Reshapes Supply Chains

In February 2026, the United States launched the Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement (FORGE) at the inaugural Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington, D.C., backed by over $30 billion in financing. This plurilateral coalition represents the most coordinated Western effort to date to counter China's dominance of rare earth and critical mineral supply chains. With 54 nations attending, 11 new bilateral frameworks signed, and initiatives like Project Vault creating a $10 billion domestic strategic reserve, FORGE is reshaping global supply chains for AI, defense, battery storage, and the energy transition.

What Is FORGE?

FORGE is a plurilateral coalition designed to create a preferential trade-and-investment zone for critical minerals, replacing the earlier Minerals Security Partnership (MSP). It features coordinated price floors and adjustable tariffs to counter adversarial market manipulation by China, which controls over 60% of rare earth mining and 90% of processing. The forum is chaired by South Korea through mid-2026 and aims to link bilateral deals into a system covering two-thirds of the global economy. According to the Atlantic Council, FORGE represents a shift from the MSP's project-by-project approach to a more comprehensive, rules-based framework.

The $30 Billion Backing

The U.S. government mobilized over $30 billion in capital for supply-chain security, including:

• Project Vault: A $10 billion public-private strategic critical minerals reserve funded by the Export-Import Bank (EXIM), with nearly $2 billion in private capital. Companies can secure minerals at fixed prices by committing to future purchases, reducing supply disruption and price volatility risks.
• Reko Diq (Pakistan): $1.3 billion for copper and gold production.
• Additional financing through the Development Finance Corporation (DFC), Department of Energy (DOE), and Department of Defense (DOD).

These funds aim to onshore and friend-shore critical mineral extraction, processing, and recycling, reducing dependence on Chinese supply chains. The U.S. critical minerals strategy now involves multiple agencies: Commerce handles monitoring and 232 tariffs, USTR leads negotiations, and EXIM, DFC, DOE, and the Pentagon provide financing tools.

Bilateral Frameworks and Global Reach

At the Ministerial, the U.S. signed 11 new bilateral critical minerals frameworks or MOUs with countries including Argentina, Morocco, Peru, the Philippines, the UAE, and the UK, bringing the total to 21 deals in five months. These frameworks cover joint exploration, processing, and investment, creating a network of allied supply chains. The critical minerals bilateral agreements are designed to be interoperable under FORGE, forming a cohesive bloc.

Strategic Implications: Splitting Global Markets

FORGE's coordinated price floors and adjustable tariffs could effectively split global critical minerals markets into competing blocs—one led by the U.S. and its allies, the other by China. This realignment has profound implications for industries reliant on rare earths, lithium, cobalt, and other minerals. The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) argues that the U.S. cannot out-mine China and should pursue innovation-led strategies, such as developing rare-earth-free magnets and waste-based recovery. However, FORGE's trade-and-investment zone approach aims to create a market large enough to incentivize new production outside China.

Project Vault: A Domestic Strategic Reserve

Project Vault, announced on February 2, 2026, establishes the U.S. Strategic Critical Minerals Reserve. EXIM Chairman Jovanovic promoted it as a way to protect American manufacturers from supply shocks. The reserve will store essential raw materials in secure facilities across the U.S., with companies able to hedge against price volatility. Supporters include GE Vernova, Mercuria Energy Americas, Traxys, Hartree, Clarios, and Boeing. However, challenges remain regarding specialized infrastructure for processed minerals and potential market destabilization from stockpiling without procurement contracts, as noted by the Bipartisan Policy Center.

Expert Perspectives

Secretary of State Marco Rubio emphasized that FORGE requires broad adoption across countries, evolving from an initial 'America First' domestic focus. Vice President JD Vance and six cabinet members attended the Ministerial, signaling high-level commitment. The geopolitical implications of critical minerals are vast: China's near-total control over rare earths and willingness to weaponize them poses an urgent threat, but early U.S. investments in breakthrough technologies through ARPA-E and DARPA have seeded promising alternatives.

FAQ

What is FORGE?

FORGE (Forum on Resource Geostrategic Engagement) is a plurilateral coalition launched by the U.S. in February 2026 to create a preferential trade-and-investment zone for critical minerals, with coordinated price floors and adjustable tariffs to counter China's dominance.

How much funding backs FORGE?

Over $30 billion in U.S. government-mobilized capital, including $10 billion for Project Vault, $1.3 billion for Reko Diq, and additional financing from EXIM, DFC, DOE, and DOD.

Which countries are involved?

54 nations attended the Ministerial, and 11 new bilateral frameworks were signed with countries including Argentina, Morocco, Peru, the Philippines, UAE, and the UK, bringing the total to 21 deals.

What is Project Vault?

Project Vault is a $10 billion public-private strategic critical minerals reserve established by the Export-Import Bank to store essential raw materials and protect manufacturers from supply shocks and price volatility.

How does FORGE differ from the Minerals Security Partnership?

FORGE replaces the MSP with a more comprehensive, rules-based framework that includes coordinated price floors, adjustable tariffs, and a plurilateral trade zone, rather than project-by-project cooperation.

Conclusion

FORGE represents a paradigm shift in Western critical minerals strategy. By combining massive financing, bilateral deals, and a plurilateral framework, the U.S. and its allies aim to break China's stranglehold on supply chains essential for AI, defense, and the energy transition. The future of critical mineral supply chains will depend on translating framework agreements into operational mines and genuine plurilateral coordination. As South Korea chairs FORGE through mid-2026 and bilateral deals are actively negotiated, this is the defining geopolitical-economic story of the year.

Sources

• U.S. Department of State: 2026 Critical Minerals Ministerial
• Atlantic Council: U.S. Critical Minerals Policy Goes Collaborative with FORGE
• The Fuse: FORGE and the Administration's Evolving Approach
• EXIM: Project Vault and Strategic Critical Mineral Reserve
• Bipartisan Policy Center: Project Vault and FORGE
• Council on Foreign Relations: Leapfrogging China's Critical Minerals Dominance