New START Treaty 2026: Nuclear Arms Control Ends as Treaty Expires | Global Security

What is the New START Treaty?

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) was the last remaining bilateral nuclear arms control agreement between the United States and Russia. Signed in 2010 and extended in 2021, the treaty limited both countries to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads on 700 delivery systems, with extensive verification measures including on-site inspections and data exchanges. On February 5, 2026, this critical agreement expired, marking the first time since the early 1970s that the world's two largest nuclear powers operate without legally binding limits on their strategic nuclear forces.

Why Did New START Expire in 2026?

The New START treaty expired because it could only be extended once under its original terms, and despite negotiations, no replacement agreement was reached. The treaty had been under increasing strain since 2020 when COVID-19 pandemic restrictions suspended inspections. Relations further deteriorated after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, with Moscow suspending its participation in New START in 2023. While Russia proposed a one-year extension and the U.S. expressed interest in including China in new negotiations, these diplomatic efforts failed to produce a successor agreement.

The Timeline of New START's Demise

• 2010: New START signed by Presidents Obama and Medvedev
• 2021: Treaty extended for five years until February 5, 2026
• 2022: Russia's invasion of Ukraine strains bilateral relations
• 2023: Russia suspends participation in New START verification measures
• February 5, 2026: New START officially expires with no replacement

Immediate Consequences of the Expiration

The expiration of New START removes critical guardrails that have governed U.S.-Russia nuclear relations for decades. Without the treaty's limits, both nations can now expand their nuclear forces without constraints, potentially triggering a new nuclear arms race reminiscent of Cold War tensions. The absence of verification measures means neither country will have regular insight into the other's nuclear capabilities, increasing the risk of miscalculation during crises.

As nuclear expert Dr. Sarah Chen of the International Security Institute warned, 'We're entering uncharted territory where strategic stability is no longer underpinned by agreed limits. This increases the likelihood that nuclear weapons could be viewed as usable instruments rather than weapons of last resort.'

Global Security Implications

The expiration occurs against a backdrop of growing nuclear competition worldwide. China's nuclear stockpile has nearly tripled since 2020 to an estimated 600+ warheads and is projected to reach 1,000 by 2030. Other nuclear-armed states like India, Pakistan, and North Korea continue to modernize their arsenals. The breakdown of U.S.-Russia arms control could accelerate global nuclear proliferation and undermine the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty framework.

Expert Reactions and Warnings

On February 5, 2026, 23 senior former officials and nuclear experts from the U.S., Europe, and Russia issued a joint statement warning that the lack of arms control will reduce nuclear stability and predictability. They emphasized that more nuclear weapons will not increase safety and called for concrete nuclear restraint measures.

Former President Barack Obama commented on the expiration, calling it 'a pointless wiping out of decades of diplomacy that made the world safer.' Russian officials also expressed alarm, with Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova stating, 'We remain open to dialogue, but mutual respect and consideration of security interests must form the basis of any future agreement.'

What Happens Next? Potential Paths Forward

Despite the expiration, several options remain for managing nuclear risks:

1. Political Understandings: Both countries could agree to continue observing New START limits voluntarily, though without verification mechanisms
2. New Negotiations: Broader talks involving China and other nuclear states could create a more comprehensive framework
3. Verification Restoration: Re-establishing inspection regimes even without formal treaty limits
4. Multilateral Approaches: Expanding arms control to include all nuclear-armed states

The situation is particularly urgent ahead of the 2026 Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty Review Conference, where nuclear-weapon states face criticism for failing to meet their disarmament obligations under Article VI of the NPT.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ)

What was the New START treaty?

The New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was a bilateral agreement between the United States and Russia that limited each country to 1,550 deployed strategic nuclear warheads and established verification measures including inspections and data exchanges.

Why is the expiration of New START dangerous?

Without New START, there are no legally binding limits on U.S. and Russian nuclear forces for the first time in decades, increasing the risk of nuclear arms racing, miscalculation during crises, and reduced strategic stability.

Can the treaty be revived or replaced?

While New START itself cannot be extended again, both countries could negotiate a new agreement. However, current geopolitical tensions and disagreements about including China make immediate replacement unlikely.

How does this affect global nuclear security?

The expiration undermines the broader nuclear nonproliferation regime and could encourage other countries to expand their nuclear programs, potentially leading to increased global nuclear competition.

What are the immediate next steps?

Experts recommend resuming dialogue, maintaining voluntary limits, and working toward a new framework that addresses modern strategic realities including China's growing nuclear arsenal.

Sources

International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons
Military.com Analysis
Arms Control Association Joint Statement
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Expert Commentary