Donroe Doctrine: How US Power Reshapes Americas in 2026

The Eurasia Group's Top Risks 2026 report, published in January 2026, identifies the "Donroe Doctrine" as the third most significant global risk of the year. This term describes the Trump administration's aggressive revival of Monroe-era unilateralism across the Western Hemisphere — a strategy that combines military strikes, economic coercion, and selective alliance-building to reassert U.S. primacy in Latin America while simultaneously retreating from broader global security commitments. From the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to a $20 billion bailout for Argentina and deepening ties with El Salvador's Nayib Bukele, the Donroe Doctrine is reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Americas and sending shockwaves through the international order.

What Is the Donroe Doctrine?

The Donroe Doctrine — a portmanteau of "Donald" and "Monroe" — refers to the Trump administration's reinterpretation of the 1823 Monroe Doctrine, which originally warned European powers against further colonization in the Americas. Unlike its 19th-century predecessor, which focused on preventing external interference, the Donroe Doctrine actively asserts U.S. dominance through hard power. The 2025 National Security Strategy explicitly outlines a "Trump Corollary to the Monroe Doctrine," emphasizing U.S. preeminence in the Western Hemisphere through counternarcotic operations, migration control, and expanded alliances. The Eurasia Group risk analysis warns that this posture increases risks of policy overreach and unintended consequences in 2026.

Military Pressure: Strikes, Blockades, and the Capture of Maduro

The most dramatic manifestation of the Donroe Doctrine came on January 3, 2026, when U.S. forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in Caracas. The operation, part of a broader intervention that resulted in at least 80 deaths, was accompanied by air and military operations affecting civilian and strategic sites. Maduro was transported to New York to face federal charges, marking an unprecedented direct military action against a sitting head of state in the Americas.

Naval Blockade and Oil Seizures

In December 2025, the U.S. launched Operation Southern Spear, a full naval blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers. On December 10, 2025, U.S. forces seized the oil tanker Skipper carrying 1.8 million barrels of Venezuelan crude. Further seizures in January 2026 included the Russian-flagged Marinera near Iceland and the Panama-flagged M Sophia in the Caribbean. The Venezuelan government condemned the actions as "international piracy." The U.S. oil blockade of Venezuela has significantly tightened economic pressure on the Maduro regime's successors.

Cartel Strikes and Threats to Mexico

Beyond Venezuela, the U.S. military conducted 35 known strikes on drug boats in the Caribbean and Eastern Pacific, killing 115 people. In January 2026, President Trump suggested the U.S. military could launch land strikes on drug cartels in Mexico, claiming "cartels are running Mexico." Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum firmly rejected the idea, stating, "Cooperation, yes; subordination and intervention, no." The U.S. also designated Colombia's Clan del Golfo as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and classified fentanyl as a "weapon of mass destruction."

Economic Coercion and Selective Alliances

The Donroe Doctrine is not solely about military force. Economic tools — both punitive and rewarding — are central to the strategy.

The Argentina Bailout

In October 2025, the Trump administration provided a $20 billion credit line to Argentina, led by President Javier Milei, a close ideological ally. The bailout included a currency swap agreement with Argentina's central bank and direct purchases of Argentine pesos by the U.S. Treasury. Critics, including Senators Elizabeth Warren and Chuck Grassley, called it a politically motivated move benefiting hedge fund managers. However, by January 2026, Argentina had fully repaid the funds drawn, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calling it an "America First homerun deal." The U.S.-Argentina financial alliance has strengthened Milei's position ahead of crucial midterm elections.

Deepening Ties with El Salvador

On January 29, 2026, the U.S. and El Salvador signed a reciprocal trade agreement granting U.S. companies preferential access to El Salvador's critical minerals supply chain while promoting investment in clean technologies and defense industries. Security cooperation has intensified with enhanced intelligence-sharing and coordinated deportations targeting transnational crime. However, human rights groups have raised alarms about conditions in Salvadoran prisons like CECOT, where deaths and due process violations have been documented. The U.S.-El Salvador security partnership highlights the tension between geopolitical pragmatism and democratic principles.

Panama Canal Pressure

The Panama Canal has reemerged as a geopolitical flashpoint. Panama's top court voided the license of a Hong Kong-based CK Hutchison subsidiary operating two key terminals on the waterway, through which 40% of U.S. container traffic passes annually. The decision was seen as a win for the White House, which has prioritized blocking Chinese influence. China retaliated by directing state firms to halt new projects in Panama and warning that Panama would "pay a heavy price." Panama's President José Raúl Mulino dismissed the threats, asserting judicial independence.

Impact on the International Order

The Donroe Doctrine represents a fundamental shift in U.S. foreign policy. While the Trump administration aggressively asserts dominance in the Western Hemisphere, it has simultaneously reduced commitments in Europe, Asia, and the Middle East. This retrenchment from global security obligations — combined with unilateral military actions in Latin America — has alarmed traditional allies and emboldened rivals. The global implications of the Donroe Doctrine are profound: China is expanding economic ties with Brazil and other South American nations, while Russia has condemned the Venezuelan intervention as a violation of international law.

Expert Perspectives

Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, notes that the Donroe Doctrine "increases the risk of policy overreach and unintended consequences. The U.S. is taking on significant commitments in its own backyard while alienating allies abroad." Meanwhile, analysts at the Council on Foreign Relations warn that the strategy could backfire if Latin American nations resist U.S. pressure or if China successfully positions itself as a counterweight.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the Donroe Doctrine?

The Donroe Doctrine is the Trump administration's revival and expansion of the Monroe Doctrine, asserting U.S. primacy in the Western Hemisphere through military force, economic coercion, and selective alliances.

Why is it a top risk for 2026?

Eurasia Group ranks it as the #3 global risk because of the potential for overreach, unintended military escalation, and damage to U.S. relations with both regional neighbors and global allies.

What actions have been taken under the Donroe Doctrine?

Key actions include the capture of Venezuela's president, a naval blockade of Venezuelan oil, strikes on drug boats, threats of land strikes in Mexico, a $20 billion bailout for Argentina, a trade deal with El Salvador, and pressure on Panama over the canal.

How has Latin America responded?

Responses vary. Argentina's Milei and El Salvador's Bukele have embraced closer ties, while Mexico's Sheinbaum and Venezuela's government have resisted. Panama has complied with U.S. pressure on China but asserted judicial independence.

What does this mean for global alliances?

The Donroe Doctrine signals a shift toward hemispheric unilateralism and away from multilateral global commitments, potentially weakening traditional alliances and creating space for China and Russia to expand influence in the region.

Conclusion

The Donroe Doctrine is reshaping the Americas in 2026 through a combination of military power, economic leverage, and strategic partnerships. While the strategy has achieved short-term tactical victories — from Maduro's capture to Argentina's repayment — the long-term consequences remain uncertain. As the U.S. doubles down on hemispheric dominance, the risk of overreach, regional backlash, and global instability looms large. The world is watching closely as Washington redraws the map of power in its own backyard.

Sources

• Eurasia Group: Top Risk 3 - The Donroe Doctrine
• AS/COA: Tracking Trump and Latin America Security
• CNBC: Trump Suggests Land Strikes on Mexican Cartels
• Fortune: Argentina Repays $20 Billion Credit Line
• Al Día: Trump-Bukele Pact
• CNBC: Panama Canal Geopolitical Flashpoint
• Wikipedia: 2025-2026 US Oil Blockade of Venezuela