English
What is the Ukraine War's Impact on European Security?
Lithuanian Colonel Linas Idzelis, commander of the Lithuanian Riflemen's Union, has issued a stark warning that losing Ukraine would mean 'the end of story for Europe.' In an exclusive interview with Ukrinform, the paramilitary leader described Russia's war against Ukraine as a 'holy war, a war of survival' rather than a traditional economic or ideological conflict. With Europe's security architecture facing its greatest test since World War II, Idzelis emphasizes that Ukrainian independence is not just a regional concern but an existential requirement for European stability. The colonel's warning comes as European defense spending has surged from €218 billion in 2021 to an estimated €381 billion in 2025, yet strategic gaps remain.
Russia's Long-Term Strategy vs. Europe's Short-Term Thinking
Colonel Idzelis outlines Russia's systematic expansion strategy that began with Chechnya, continued with Georgia, targeted Ukraine as the third objective, and now positions the Baltic states as the fourth target. 'We have constantly felt that we live close to a volcano,' Idzelis told Ukrinform, describing the persistent threat perception in Lithuania. He criticizes Europe for lacking a coherent long-term strategy while Russia and China pursue clear strategic goals, creating what he calls an 'extremely dangerous' period for the continent.
Four Scenarios for Baltic Invasion
The Lithuanian commander outlines four potential invasion scenarios that Lithuania faces:
- Hybrid Warfare: Continuing Russia's current approach using disinformation, cyberattacks, and proxy forces like the Wagner Group operations in Africa and Ukraine.
- Population Manipulation: Using social media and propaganda to turn local populations against their governments before military intervention.
- Energy Blockade: Cutting off oil and gas supplies, though Lithuania has become energy-independent since Russia cut its pipeline in 1997.
- Direct Military Invasion: Thousands of Russian troops in civilian clothing crossing the border at night, supported by approximately 400 Shahed drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.
Why Europe Needs Ukraine's Military Experience
Idzelis emphasizes that Europe desperately needs Ukraine's battlefield experience. 'Only the Ukrainian army knows how to really fight against the Russians, how to defend itself,' he states. Ukrainian forces have developed unique expertise in countering Russian tactics through four years of continuous combat. The colonel contrasts two warfare approaches: Russia's 'Mosfilm' style of mass infantry waves versus the 'Hollywood' approach using advanced technology, drone operations, and precision strikes that Ukraine has mastered.
The Drone Revolution in Modern Warfare
Future warfare, according to Idzelis, lies in robotization and drone-centric operations. Ukrainian forces currently fly approximately 11,000 drone missions daily, demonstrating the scale of this transformation. While Western countries have financial capacity for such approaches, they lack sufficient defense industrial capacity. Idzelis urges European leaders to accelerate defense transformation by adopting Ukrainian innovations like long-range drones and advanced interception systems.
Europe's Defense Transformation Challenges
Despite dramatic increases in defense spending, Europe faces significant challenges in transforming its military capabilities. Poland leads European defense spending at 4.48% of GDP, followed by Lithuania (4.00%), Latvia (3.73%), and Estonia (3.38%). Germany's defense budget has doubled from 2021 levels to €95 billion in 2025. However, Idzelis notes that Europe must address three critical gaps:
- Industrial Capacity: Building new production lines for drones, ammunition, and advanced weapons systems
- Personnel Reserves: Most European countries have eliminated conscription, leaving insufficient reserves for prolonged conflict
- Strategic Integration: Incorporating Ukrainian defense industry and military expertise into European security architecture
Implications for European Security Architecture
The NATO defense spending targets have been raised to 5% of GDP by 2035, with all EU Allies except Spain pledging to meet this benchmark. The EU has launched major initiatives including the European Defence Industrial Strategy (EDIS) and the ReArm Europe plan, which aims to leverage €800 billion in defense spending through 2029. However, Idzelis warns that without Ukrainian integration, Europe's defense would face 'an enormous challenge.' He advocates for deep strike capabilities against Russian oil refineries, military equipment factories, weapons depots, and strategic airfields to degrade Russia's war-making capacity.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the Lithuanian Riflemen's Union?
The Lithuanian Riflemen's Union (LRU) is a paramilitary organization that bridges civilians and armed forces, preparing citizens for both armed defense and unarmed civil resistance. During peacetime, it trains Lithuanian citizens, while during war, its armed formations fall under direct command of the Lithuanian Armed Forces.
Why does Colonel Idzelis call Ukraine's defense crucial for Europe?
Idzelis believes that if Russia achieves military victory in Ukraine, remaining Ukrainians would be forcibly drafted into the Russian military and used to attack Europe. He describes this as creating 'disastrous scenarios' for the continent.
What are Europe's main defense weaknesses according to the colonel?
Europe lacks sufficient defense industrial capacity, personnel reserves due to eliminated conscription, and has failed to integrate Ukrainian battlefield experience into its defense planning.
How has European defense spending changed since 2021?
EU Member States' defense budgets have increased from €218 billion in 2021 to an estimated €381 billion in 2025 (2.1% of GDP), with all EU NATO members now meeting the 2% GDP defense spending benchmark.
What is Russia's long-term strategy according to Idzelis?
Russia follows a systematic expansion strategy that began with Chechnya, continued with Georgia, targeted Ukraine as the third objective, and now positions the Baltic states as the fourth target in its long-term plans.
Sources
Ukrinform Interview with Colonel Linas Idzelis
Foreign Policy: Europe's Front-Line States Prepare for Russian Aggression
EU Member States Defence Budgets Report 2026
Lithuanian Foreign Policy Review Interview with Colonel Idzelis
Follow Discussion