Brazil Election: Lula Says Trump Wants to Colonize | Update

With just over a week until Brazil's presidential election on 4 October 2026, incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has sharply escalated his attacks on US President Donald Trump and rival candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. In a new TV ad and a social media post, Lula accuses Trump of backing Bolsonaro so that Washington can 'colonise' Brazil and seize its natural resources. The accusation lands as polls show the race tightening to a statistical dead heat.

Background: Brazil's 2026 Election Race

Brazil's 2026 general election is set for Sunday 4 October, with a runoff on 25 October if no candidate wins an absolute majority. Lula, 80, of the left-wing Workers' Party, is seeking a fourth term. His main opponent is 45-year-old Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, the eldest son of jailed former President Jair Bolsonaro. The elder Bolsonaro was convicted in 2025 for plotting a coup and is barred from office until 2030. Jair Bolsonaro's 2025 coup conviction remains a defining issue, but economic discontent and a Supreme Court ethics scandal have made the race far closer than many expected.

Lula's TV Ad: 'He Wants to Colonize Us'

In the 60-second campaign spot, released online Thursday night and aired on Brazilian television Friday, a female presenter argues that Trump supports Flávio Bolsonaro to 'colonise Brazil, take our riches... and leave us in the dust.' The ad cites the 25 percent tariffs the White House has imposed on Brazilian producers, alleged attempts by large American tech companies to influence the electoral process, and warnings from Brazil's intelligence service to electoral authorities about US interference. Lula shared the video on X, writing: If it depends on him, Brazil will become a colony again. The spot also points to the Rockbridge Network conservative donor group, co-founded by US Vice President JD Vance, as a channel of support for Flávio's campaign.

Why Now? Corruption Scandal and Neck-and-Neck Polls

Lula's offensive comes as his campaign faces fallout from a police report linking Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes—a key Lula ally—to Daniel Vorcaro, a banker accused of defrauding a state bank and about 800,000 customers in Brazil's largest bank fraud. Moraes denies any wrongdoing, but the scandal has dented Lula's standing. A Datafolha poll published in late September shows Lula at 47 percent and Flávio Bolsonaro at 45 percent, with a margin of error of exactly 2 percentage points—a statistical tie. Brazil's Supreme Court ethics scandal has eroded the incumbent's once-commanding lead.

Impact on Brazil-US Relations and the Runoff

The US State Department has dismissed the interference allegations as a 'baseless lie.' Dozens of Democratic lawmakers in Washington have separately voiced concern about the Trump administration's actions. If no candidate reaches 50 percent on 4 October, a runoff on 25 October is likely. A Bolsonaro victory could realign US-Brazil trade and tariff policy, while a Lula win would likely keep tensions high over tariffs and rare-earth export restrictions.

FAQ: Brazil Election and Trump Colonization Claims

What is the date of Brazil's 2026 presidential election?

The first round is Sunday 4 October 2026, with a runoff on 25 October if no candidate wins a majority.

Who is running against Lula in Brazil's 2026 election?

Lula's main rival is Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro.

Why does Lula accuse Trump of trying to colonize Brazil?

Lula claims Trump supports Flávio Bolsonaro to access Brazil's natural resources and expand US influence, citing 25% tariffs, tech-company interference, and the Rockbridge Network co-founded by JD Vance.

What do the latest polls show?

A late-September Datafolha poll puts Lula at 47% and Flávio Bolsonaro at 45%, within the 2-point margin of error.

Has the US responded to the interference claims?

Yes, the US State Department denies interfering and has called the allegations a 'baseless lie.'