English
A leaked 2026 Kremlin memo reviewed by Bloomberg reveals that Russia is exploring a dramatic return to the US dollar settlement system as part of a proposed economic partnership with the Trump administration, tied to a Ukraine peace framework. This would mark a stunning reversal after years of BRICS-led de-dollarization, where local currencies already account for roughly 65% of intra-bloc trade. The deal could reinforce US dollar dominance in energy markets, fracture BRICS monetary cohesion, and fundamentally alter the trajectory toward a multipolar currency order.
Context: The BRICS De-Dollarization Drive
Since Western sanctions were imposed on Russia in 2022, Moscow has aggressively pursued de-dollarization. The BRICS bloc—Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and expanded members—has built alternative payment systems, increased local currency trade, and accumulated gold reserves. By 2026, over 60% of BRICS trade settles in national currencies, and Russia conducts 90-95% of its bilateral trade with China and India in rubles, yuan, and rupees. The BRICS de-dollarization progress has been a cornerstone of the bloc's strategy to challenge US financial hegemony.
The Kremlin Memo: Seven Areas of Cooperation
The high-level document, drafted in early 2026 and confirmed by Bloomberg, outlines seven points of convergent economic interests designed to appeal to President Trump's transactional approach. The proposal is reportedly referred to as the "Dmitriev package" by Ukrainian President Zelensky. Key elements include:
- Return to dollar settlement: Russia would rejoin the international dollar-based financial system, including for energy deals, reversing years of sanctions-driven de-dollarization.
- Fossil fuel joint ventures: Joint investments in natural gas, offshore oil exploration, and LNG projects, reinforcing US-Russia energy cooperation.
- Critical raw materials: Collaboration on palladium, nickel, lithium, copper, and platinum—essential for US aerospace, tech manufacturing, and the green transition.
- Aviation and technology: Long-term contracts to modernize Russia's aircraft fleet and cooperation in nuclear energy and artificial intelligence.
- Market access: Favorable conditions for American companies returning to the Russian consumer market.
- Sanctions relief: The deal is tied to a broader Ukraine peace framework, with economic benefits as incentives for a finalized settlement.
Impact on BRICS Monetary Cohesion
A Russian pivot back to the dollar would deal a severe blow to BRICS de-dollarization momentum. The BRICS alternative payments architecture relies heavily on Russia's participation. If Moscow shifts, it could fracture the bloc's monetary cohesion and weaken the push for a multipolar currency order. Western officials question whether Russia would ultimately pursue a deal counter to Beijing's interests, noting China has become a crucial supplier for Russia's war efforts. However, the memo argues that dollar reintegration would expand Russia's forex market while strengthening the greenback's global reserve currency status.
Expert Perspectives
"This is a seismic shift in global finance," says Dr. Elena Morozova, a geopolitical economist at the Moscow Center for Strategic Studies. "Russia's return to the dollar would not only reinforce US dominance in energy markets but also signal that de-dollarization has limits without a viable alternative." Meanwhile, analysts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics warn that the deal faces significant hurdles, including lifting existing sanctions and domestic political considerations in the US. The US sanctions policy on Russia would need to be substantially revised for the deal to proceed.
Implications for Global Trade and Energy Markets
The proposed partnership centers on a "fossil-fuel first" strategy. Joint ventures in oil and LNG would tie Russian energy exports back to dollar-denominated markets, potentially undermining the BRICS push for yuan- or ruble-based energy pricing. This could have ripple effects across global energy markets, reinforcing the petrodollar system and complicating efforts by China and India to diversify settlement currencies. The future of the petrodollar system hangs in the balance as this deal unfolds.
FAQ
What is the Kremlin memo about?
The 2026 Kremlin memo, reviewed by Bloomberg, proposes Russia's return to the US dollar settlement system as part of a broad economic partnership with the Trump administration, tied to a Ukraine peace deal.
How much BRICS trade is in local currencies?
As of 2026, over 60% of intra-BRICS trade settles in local currencies, with Russia conducting 90-95% of its trade with China and India in national currencies.
Why would Russia return to the dollar?
Russia seeks economic benefits including sanctions relief, joint energy ventures, and access to US technology and markets, as outlined in the seven-point proposal.
What does this mean for BRICS de-dollarization?
A Russian pivot could fracture BRICS monetary cohesion and weaken the bloc's push for a multipolar currency order, reinforcing US dollar dominance.
What are the main obstacles?
Key hurdles include lifting existing US sanctions, domestic political opposition in both countries, and potential backlash from China, Russia's key economic partner.
Conclusion
The leaked Kremlin memo represents a potential watershed moment in global finance. If realized, the Russia-Trump deal could reverse years of de-dollarization, reinforce US dollar supremacy in energy markets, and reshape the trajectory toward a multipolar currency order. However, the path forward is fraught with geopolitical complexities, and the outcome remains uncertain. The global financial system in 2026 will be watching closely.
Sources
- Bloomberg, February 12, 2026: Russia Memo Sees Return to Dollar System in Pitch Made for Trump
- Economic Times: Russia May Return to US Dollar Settlement System in Trump Deal
- Financial Post: Kremlin Memo Proposes Russia's Return to U.S. Dollar
- Chicago Policy Review: BRICS and the Shift Away from Dollar Dependence
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