US Midterms Final 3 Days: 50.5M Votes, $500M Texas Race

With the 2026 US midterms entering their final three days, more than 50.5 million Americans had already cast early ballots by Saturday morning—nearly 5 million more than the total early votes in the 2022 midterms, according to a University of Florida analysis reported by The Guardian. The surge has turned the closing stretch into a high-stakes test of voter energy, with control of the House, Senate and 36 governorships on the line.

What Is Driving the Record 2026 Early-Voting Surge?

By Saturday morning, the University of Florida Election Lab counted 50.5 million early ballots nationally—nearly 5 million above all early votes cast in the 2022 midterms. In states that report party registration, Democrats cast 10.7 million early votes compared with 7.8 million for Republicans. Election officials caution that party-registration data do not reveal actual candidate choices, but the gap points to higher Democratic enthusiasm.

Several states are recording dramatic increases compared with the same point in 2022:

• South Carolina: +83%
• Maine: +44%
• Kansas: +34%
• Michigan: +32%

The early-vote data compiled by the University of Florida Election Lab show that early voting has become a permanent fixture of American elections. The surge echoes turnout patterns seen in the 2024 presidential election, although midterm cycles typically lag behind presidential years.

Texas Senate Race: A $500 Million Battle for Control

No contest illustrates the stakes better than the Texas Senate race, which has become the most expensive in US history with spending above $500 million, according to BBC News. Democrat James Talarico, a 37-year-old former teacher and Christian minister, is locked in a tight contest with Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Recent polls show Talarico leading 48-46 and 47-45, both within the margin of error.

Fundraising has been lopsided: Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter, while Paxton reported $18 million. Yet billionaire Elon Musk has contributed $158 million to a pro-Paxton super PAC, helping push combined advertising past $500 million. OpenSecrets analyst Brendan Glavin told Houston Public Media: ‘It is blowing it out of the water.’

If Talarico wins, he would deliver Democrats their first statewide victory in Texas since 1994 and their first Senate seat from the state since 1988. The race has drawn comparisons to the 2024 Ohio Senate race, previously the most expensive in the country. Political analysts tracking US Senate midterm polls say Texas, along with Alaska and Kansas, will likely determine Senate control.

Why the Final 72 Hours Matter for Congress

Republicans are defending a 53-47 Senate majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win control. Beyond Texas, Democratic challengers are targeting Republican-held seats in Alaska and Kansas. The House majority is also in play, and 36 governorships will be decided on November 3.

Early-vote totals do not guarantee final outcomes. A large share of voters still plans to cast ballots on Election Day, and the final 72 hours will test whether Democrats’ early-vote edge holds or whether Republicans close the gap. The battle for the House majority in 2026 could be decided by a handful of suburban districts where turnout models remain uncertain.

Key Issues Shaping the Last Weekend of Voting

Voters are heading to the polls amid deep frustration over affordability, with inflation running at 3.7%. Guardian readers described costly gas, groceries, tariffs and prescription drugs. One voter said: ‘I’m paying $7,000 a month for medication before insurance.’

The US war with Iran and its effect on gasoline prices, plus anger over government corruption, are also driving turnout. At the same time, up to 70% of Americans oppose local AI data centers, making the AI data center expansion debate a surprise midterm issue. These concerns have hardened into a referendum on Donald Trump, whose approval rating has fallen to 36%.

Frequently Asked Questions

How many Americans have voted early in the 2026 midterms?

More than 50.5 million Americans had cast early ballots by Saturday morning, nearly 5 million more than the entire 2022 midterm early-vote total.

Why is the Texas Senate race so expensive?

Spending has surpassed $500 million because the seat is a rare pickup opportunity for Democrats in a Republican-leaning state, drawing massive national super PAC money from both sides.

Which states are the key Senate battlegrounds?

Texas, Alaska and Kansas are the main Democratic targets as Republicans defend a 53-47 majority.

When is Election Day for the 2026 midterms?

Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, 2026.

Conclusion: A Referendum on the Final 72 Hours

The record early vote and the $500 million Texas race have turned the final three days into a defining moment for American politics. Whether the surge produces a Democratic wave or a Republican comeback will become clear Tuesday night, with Texas likely setting the tone for the next two years of the Trump presidency.