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Russian Hybrid Warfare Guide: AIVD-MIVD Report Warns of Grey Zone Threat in Europe
Dutch intelligence agencies AIVD and MIVD have issued a stark warning about escalating Russian hybrid warfare activities across Europe in their groundbreaking report 'Tussen vrede en oorlog' (Between Peace and War), published on February 19, 2026. The 32-page document reveals that Russia has significantly increased its hybrid operations in what intelligence officials call the 'grey zone' - the ambiguous area between peace and war - posing unprecedented threats to European security and stability.
What is Russian Hybrid Warfare?
Russian hybrid warfare represents a sophisticated blend of conventional military tactics and unconventional methods designed to achieve strategic objectives without triggering full-scale war. According to the AIVD-MIVD report, these operations combine cyberattacks, sabotage, influence campaigns, disinformation, and economic pressure to undermine European nations. The intelligence chiefs describe these attacks as bordering on state terrorism, operating in dangerous territory that challenges traditional defense and response mechanisms.
Key Findings from the AIVD-MIVD Report
The joint intelligence assessment reveals several critical developments in Russia's hybrid warfare strategy:
Escalating Threat Landscape
Since 2024, Russia has demonstrated increased risk appetite in its hybrid operations, moving beyond online activities to target physical infrastructure. The report notes specific instances of preparation for sabotage already observed in the Netherlands, with operations growing more aggressive and sophisticated. This escalation mirrors patterns seen in Ukraine conflict developments where Russia has refined its asymmetric warfare tactics.
Four Primary Threat Vectors
The intelligence services identify four main areas of concern:
- Cyberattacks: Targeting critical infrastructure, government systems, and private sector networks
- Physical Sabotage: Attempts to damage transportation, energy, and communication infrastructure
- Influence Operations: Coordinated disinformation campaigns to sow division and undermine democratic processes
- Recruitment of 'Disposable Agents': Using platforms like Telegram to recruit individuals for small-scale operations
Recent Incidents and Patterns
The report documents several alarming incidents, including Russian drones entering Polish airspace (shot down by Dutch F-35 jets), Russian fighter jets violating Estonian airspace, and Russian naval vessels passing provocatively through Dutch waters. In November 2025, Polish authorities discovered an attempted rail sabotage on the Warsaw-Ukraine line, which transports military aid and passengers, with two Ukrainian suspects allegedly hired by Russia escaping to Belarus.
Russia's Strategic Objectives in Europe
According to intelligence analysis, Moscow's hybrid warfare campaign serves multiple strategic purposes:
| Objective | Methods | Target Countries |
|---|---|---|
| Influence European Politics | Disinformation campaigns, political interference | EU member states, NATO allies |
| Disrupt Aid to Ukraine | Infrastructure sabotage, cyberattacks | Poland, Germany, Netherlands |
| Weaken European Unity | Sowing division, exploiting social tensions | Across European Union |
| Test Defense Responses | Border provocations, airspace violations | Baltic states, Poland |
'Russia's objectives include influencing European politics, sowing division, disrupting aid to Ukraine, and weakening support for European assistance,' states the intelligence assessment. The agencies warn that these attacks aim to make European populations feel insecure and potentially push for more conciliatory stances toward Russia.
European Security Implications
The AIVD-MIVD report raises serious concerns about the broader security implications for Europe. Intelligence officials emphasize that responses must increase costs for perpetrators and may require military escalation in certain scenarios. The situation has become particularly concerning regarding NATO defense protocols and the potential triggering of Article 5 mutual defense clauses if attacks result in casualties.
Security experts warn that Russia's hybrid tactics represent a fundamental challenge to European security architecture. 'These attacks operate in a dangerous gray area between war and peace,' note the intelligence chiefs, highlighting the difficulty of formulating appropriate responses that don't escalate into full military conflict while effectively deterring further aggression.
Recommended Countermeasures
The report outlines several key recommendations for European nations:
- Enhanced intelligence sharing and coordination between EU and NATO members
- Strengthening critical infrastructure protection against both physical and cyber threats
- Developing comprehensive hybrid threat response mechanisms
- Increasing public awareness and resilience against disinformation campaigns
- Bolstering cybersecurity capabilities across government and private sectors
European authorities are advised to remain vigilant and prepared for potential threats, with the Netherlands already implementing measures to enhance its own resilience and security following the intelligence assessment.
FAQ: Russian Hybrid Warfare in Europe
What is the 'grey zone' mentioned in the report?
The 'grey zone' refers to the ambiguous area between peace and war where Russia conducts hybrid operations that don't constitute traditional warfare but still pose significant threats to national security.
How has Russia's hybrid warfare evolved since 2024?
Russia has shown increased risk appetite, moving from primarily online operations to targeting physical infrastructure and employing 'disposable agents' recruited through digital platforms for sabotage missions.
What countries are most at risk from Russian hybrid attacks?
Poland, the Baltic states, Germany, and the Netherlands face particularly high risks due to their geographic proximity, support for Ukraine, and critical infrastructure vulnerabilities.
Could Russian hybrid attacks trigger NATO's Article 5?
Yes, if attacks cause fatalities and are clearly linked to Russia, NATO's mutual defense clause could be triggered, potentially leading to military responses against Russian aggression.
What should European governments do to counter these threats?
Governments should enhance intelligence sharing, strengthen infrastructure protection, develop comprehensive response mechanisms, and increase public awareness about disinformation tactics.
Sources
AIVD-MIVD Report 'Tussen vrede en oorlog'
NL Times: Dutch Intelligence Warns of Escalating Russian Hybrid Attacks
OPB: Russia Hybrid War Alarms Poland and NATO
Dutch Government Publication Page
