Food Security in 2026: Are We Heading Toward Global Shortages?

As we approach 2026, global food security faces unprecedented challenges from converging crises that threaten to push millions into hunger and destabilize food systems worldwide. With 318 million people across 68 countries already facing crisis hunger levels according to the World Food Programme, and two simultaneous famines confirmed in Gaza and Sudan for the first time this century, the world stands at a critical juncture. This comprehensive analysis examines the three primary drivers threatening food security in 2026: escalating climate shocks, volatile fertilizer prices, and persistent geopolitical conflicts that collectively jeopardize global food supply chains.

The Climate Crisis: Extreme Weather's Devastating Impact

Climate change has emerged as the most significant threat to agricultural productivity in 2026, with extreme weather events becoming more frequent and severe. Recent data reveals that under high-emission scenarios, future crop yields could decrease by up to 25%, with maize yields projected to drop by 24% by century's end. The 2025 Amazon drought affected millions across South America, while Southeast Asian floods destroyed vital rice crops. In 2026, extreme rainfall and flooding across the Mediterranean and north Africa have battered winter growing regions that feed Europe, threatening food price inflation.

According to Carbon Brief's February 2026 report, UK beef farmers face a double blow from climate change, with relentless rain forcing cows indoors while last summer's drought hit hay supplies. Researchers have developed a new El Niño index that allows earlier detection of this climate pattern, which influences global weather and causes billions in damages. There's a 60% chance of La Niña shifting to neutral conditions, with El Niño likely to follow in late spring, potentially making 2026 or 2027 the warmest year on record.

Regional Climate Impacts on Agriculture

Geographically, high-latitude temperate regions may see yield increases, while tropical and subtropical regions face the largest declines, particularly for maize in major growing areas like the US, China, South America, and Sub-Saharan Africa. Recent examples include record rainfall in China damaging 5 million metric tonnes of corn, England's second-worst harvest due to heavy rain, severe drought wiping out half of Zimbabwe's maize crop, and the US experiencing its driest autumn on record with $20.3 billion in crop losses.

Fertilizer Price Volatility and Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

The fertilizer market outlook for 2025-2026 shows significant challenges with global risks, higher costs, and tighter margins for farmers. Fertilizer prices have been climbing again after easing in 2023-2024, with phosphate fertilizers leading the increase at 36% growth from January to August 2025. Nitrogen products show month-to-month volatility, while potash prices are up 21% due to trade policy risks including a 10% U.S. tariff on Canadian imports.

The 2026 nitrogen fertilizer price outlook will be shaped by several global factors, with supply dynamics playing a crucial role. Global fertilizer use reached record levels in 2024, recovering from previous contractions, with nitrogen use driving overall growth. According to the International Fertilizer Association, global ammonia production increased 3% in 2024, and capacity is projected to grow 10.5% by 2029. However, supply disruptions in 2025 kept prices elevated, including delays at new U.S. facilities like Gulf Coast Ammonia in Texas.

Structural Vulnerabilities in Fertilizer Production

The industry faces long-term structural vulnerabilities with production dominated by Canada, Russia, Belarus for potash; Morocco, China, Saudi Arabia for phosphates; and natural gas-dependent nitrogen production. Natural gas supply issues worldwide also affected nitrogen production, with geopolitical tensions potentially impacting Trinidad and Tobago's gas supply in 2026. Key drivers include EU tariffs on Russian fertilizers redirecting supplies, China's export restrictions on phosphate and urea, and structural supply risks from concentrated production in a few countries.

Geopolitical Conflicts and Food Supply Disruptions

Four years after Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the war continues to severely impact global food security. Ukraine's 2025 grain exports (corn, barley, wheat, meslin) were 35% lower than 2020 levels, with cumulative damage from landmines contaminating farmland, destroyed irrigation infrastructure affecting 600,000 hectares, and Russian occupation reducing agricultural output. Approximately 40% of Ukraine's agricultural land is directly impacted by the invasion.

Russia has appropriated and exported up to 15 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain since 2022. Meanwhile, Russia's wheat exports surged to record levels, with Russian wheat comprising 22% of global markets by 2024, giving Moscow political leverage. However, Russia now faces weather challenges and labor shortages threatening its agricultural output. Ukraine also struggles with EU market access restrictions and severe labor shortages, with over 20% of agricultural companies citing workforce issues as a key limitation.

Impact on Global Food Systems and Vulnerable Populations

The ODI analysis identifies five key forces reshaping global food systems in 2026 amid geopolitical realignment and fiscal constraints. First, humanitarian food assistance faces severe funding shortages, with WFP projecting it can only reach 110 million of 318 million people facing crisis hunger levels. Second, defense budgets are displacing food security investments, with US defense spending exceeding $1 trillion while non-defense discretionary spending faces 23% cuts.

Third, trade measures like the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism are reshaping market access, disadvantaging developing countries lacking carbon pricing infrastructure. Fourth, price stabilization is being mistaken for resilience, ignoring structural vulnerabilities like climate impacts and energy-fertilizer linkages. Fifth, philanthropic capital is filling some gaps but not replacing public investment, with corporate capital flowing to profitable rather than urgent needs.

Expert Perspectives and Solutions

IFDC has launched its new Strategy 2026-2035, a bold science-driven framework to address global food security and soil health challenges. The strategy focuses on three interconnected goals: advancing climate-smart fertilizer innovation, empowering smallholder farmers (particularly women and youth) to adopt sustainable practices, and transforming agricultural systems through market and policy strengthening. This 10-year roadmap responds to critical issues where over one-third of global soils are degraded and food insecurity is rising.

Building on 90 years of fertilizer expertise, IFDC aims to empower millions of farmers across sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia to regenerate soils, boost productivity, reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and create resilient food systems through its Global Network of Fertilizer Innovation Centers and collaborative partnerships. "We must address the interconnected challenges of soil health, climate resilience, and market access simultaneously," explains an IFDC spokesperson.

Frequently Asked Questions About 2026 Food Security

What are the main threats to food security in 2026?

The three primary threats are climate shocks (extreme weather reducing crop yields), fertilizer price volatility (increasing production costs), and geopolitical conflicts (disrupting supply chains and trade routes).

How many people are currently facing food insecurity?

According to the World Food Programme, 318 million people across 68 countries are facing crisis hunger levels, more than double the 2019 figure, with two simultaneous famines in Gaza and Sudan.

What is the projected impact of climate change on crop yields?

Under high-emission scenarios, future crop yields could decrease by up to 25%, with maize yields projected to drop by 24% by century's end, while wheat yields may increase in some temperate regions.

How has the Ukraine war affected global food security?

Ukraine's 2025 grain exports were 35% lower than 2020 levels, with 40% of agricultural land impacted, destroyed infrastructure affecting 600,000 hectares, and Russia appropriating up to 15 million metric tons of Ukrainian grain.

What solutions are being implemented to address food security?

Organizations like IFDC are launching comprehensive strategies focusing on climate-smart fertilizer innovation, empowering smallholder farmers, and transforming agricultural systems through market and policy strengthening.

Conclusion: A Critical Juncture for Global Food Systems

As 2026 approaches, the convergence of climate shocks, fertilizer price volatility, and geopolitical conflicts creates a perfect storm threatening global food security. The world faces a critical choice between continued vulnerability and building resilient, sustainable food systems. While organizations like IFDC are developing comprehensive strategies, coordinated international action, political solutions for safe humanitarian access, and addressing root causes through resilience building remain essential. The coming year will test whether global cooperation can overcome these challenges or whether we are indeed heading toward widespread food shortages.

Sources

World Food Programme Global Hunger Crisis Report, ODI Food Systems Analysis 2026, Carbon Brief February 2026 Report, Fertilizer Market Outlook 2025-2026, CSIS Ukraine War Food Security Impact Analysis, IFDC Strategy 2026-2035