Economic Uncertainty & AI Risks: Gartner's 2025 Emerging Risk Report Explained

What is Gartner's Emerging Risk Report?

Gartner's Quarterly Emerging Risk Report for the fourth quarter of 2025 reveals that economic uncertainty remains the top concern among enterprise risk leaders for the second consecutive quarter. The survey of 367 senior risk and assurance executives, conducted by the Stamford-based research giant, shows that a low-growth economic environment continues to dominate risk agendas as organizations navigate global trade tensions, financial market volatility, and persistent inflation pressures. This comprehensive analysis provides critical insights into how enterprise risk management strategies are evolving to address both traditional economic threats and emerging technological risks, particularly from autonomous AI systems.

Economic Concerns Dominate Risk Landscape

The Gartner survey, released on February 11, 2026, identifies several interconnected economic factors driving risk concerns. Financial instability tops the list, with 42% of respondents citing it as their primary worry. Global trade tensions, which have persisted through 2025, continue to create supply chain disruptions and market uncertainty. Labor market pressures, including high unemployment in certain sectors, compound these challenges, while inflationary pressures remain stubborn despite central bank interventions. 'The emerging risks in the fourth quarter of 2025 show both continued concern related to economic, geopolitical and environmental issues,' said Gamika Takkar, Director of Research in Gartner's Risk & Audit Practice.

Key Economic Risk Drivers

• Financial market volatility affecting investment decisions
• Global trade tensions disrupting supply chains
• Labor market pressures and unemployment concerns
• Persistent inflationary pressures across sectors
• Geopolitical instability impacting international operations

Agentic AI: The Next Frontier of Technological Risk

While economic concerns dominate, artificial intelligence risks have surged to become the second-most significant threat according to the report. Specifically, agentic AI – autonomous systems capable of independent decision-making and action-taking – represents a major leap forward in enterprise automation while introducing unprecedented risk factors. The report notes a rapid increase in agentic AI adoption, with organizations planning significant deployments over the next two years. 'Agentic AI represents a major leap forward in enterprise automation and decision-making,' explained Takkar. 'Unlike traditional AI models that require human prompts, agentic AI systems operate autonomously, and as they gain more autonomy and complexity, human intervention becomes increasingly challenging.'

Agentic AI Risk Factors

Convergence of Economic and Technological Risks

The most significant finding from Gartner's research is how economic and technological risks are converging to create complex, interconnected challenges for organizations. Economic pressures are forcing companies to accelerate digital transformation, including AI adoption, while simultaneously managing the risks these technologies introduce. This creates a delicate balancing act where organizations must innovate to remain competitive while maintaining robust risk management frameworks. The cybersecurity threats in 2026 landscape further complicates this picture, as economic uncertainty often correlates with increased cyber threats.

Integrated Risk Management Strategies

To address these converging risks, Gartner recommends several integrated approaches. First, organizations should develop cross-functional risk committees that include representatives from finance, technology, operations, and compliance. Second, implementing continuous monitoring systems for both economic indicators and AI system performance can provide early warning signals. Third, establishing clear governance frameworks for autonomous systems, including kill switches and human oversight protocols, is essential for managing agentic AI risks. Finally, stress testing both financial and technological systems against various scenarios can help organizations prepare for unexpected disruptions.

Impact on Enterprise Risk Management

The Gartner findings have significant implications for how organizations approach risk management in 2026 and beyond. Traditional siloed approaches are becoming increasingly inadequate as risks become more interconnected. Enterprise risk management functions must evolve to address both macroeconomic trends and technological transformations simultaneously. This requires new skill sets, including data analytics capabilities, AI literacy, and cross-domain expertise. Organizations that successfully integrate economic and technological risk management will be better positioned to navigate the complex landscape ahead, while those that maintain traditional approaches may face significant vulnerabilities. The regulatory compliance challenges in this evolving environment will require proactive rather than reactive strategies.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is agentic AI?

Agentic AI refers to artificial intelligence systems capable of autonomous decision-making and action-taking without continuous human prompting. These systems can pursue goals independently, making them more powerful but also riskier than traditional AI models.

Why does economic uncertainty remain the top risk?

Economic uncertainty persists due to ongoing global trade tensions, financial market volatility, labor market pressures, and inflationary concerns that have continued through 2025, creating a challenging environment for business planning and investment.

How many executives participated in the Gartner survey?

The survey included 367 senior risk and assurance executives from various industries and regions, providing a comprehensive view of emerging risk concerns across the global business landscape.

What are the main AI-related risks identified?

Key AI risks include algorithmic bias, data security vulnerabilities, reduced human oversight capabilities, regulatory compliance challenges, and potential reputational damage from AI-driven errors or decisions.

How should organizations prepare for these converging risks?

Organizations should implement integrated risk management frameworks, establish cross-functional governance committees, develop continuous monitoring systems, and create clear protocols for managing autonomous systems while maintaining human oversight capabilities.

Sources

Gartner Press Release: Emerging Risk Report Q4 2025
Beinsure Analysis of Gartner Findings
McKinsey Agentic AI Playbook
NC State Executive Risk Survey 2026