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What is the Gartner Emerging Risk Report?
The Gartner Quarterly Emerging Risk Report is a comprehensive survey that captures the viewpoints and concerns of enterprise risk management (ERM) leaders, risk management professionals, auditors, and senior executives regarding emerging risks on the horizon. The latest 2026 report, based on a survey of 367 senior risk and assurance executives conducted in the fourth quarter of 2025, reveals that the low-growth economic environment remains the top concern for risk leaders, while agentic AI has emerged as a significant new risk factor.
Economic Uncertainty Dominates Risk Landscape
According to the Gartner survey released in February 2026, the low-growth economic environment caused by global trade tensions and increased volatility in financial markets continued to hold the top rank of emerging risks for the fourth quarter of 2025. This marks the second consecutive quarter that economic concerns have topped the list, indicating persistent anxiety among risk professionals about financial instability, trade issues, high unemployment, and inflation.
'The emerging risks in the fourth quarter of 2025 show both continued concern related to economic, geopolitical and environmental issues, and growing awareness of the potential organizational risk involved with the rapid growth of AI use inside and outside the organization by good and bad actors alike,' said Gamika Takkar, Director of Research in the Gartner Risk & Audit Practice.
Key Economic Risk Factors
- Global trade tensions affecting supply chains
- Financial market volatility and instability
- Persistent inflation concerns
- High unemployment rates in certain sectors
- Limited economic expansion prospects
Agentic AI: The Next Evolution in Artificial Intelligence
The 4Q25 Emerging Risks Report highlights a rapid increase in agentic AI adoption, with organizations planning significant deployments over the next two years. Unlike traditional AI models that require human prompts, agentic AI systems operate autonomously, making decisions and taking actions independently to achieve goals.
'Agentic AI represents a major leap forward in enterprise automation and decision-making,' said Takkar. 'As agentic AI systems gain more autonomy and complexity, human intervention becomes increasingly challenging, raising the stakes for risk management.'
Agentic AI Risk Factors
| Risk Type | Description | Impact Level |
|---|---|---|
| Bias Amplification | Agentic AI inherits and amplifies existing AI biases | High |
| Data Leakage | Autonomous systems may expose sensitive information | Critical |
| Decision Inaccuracies | Errors in autonomous decision-making processes | High |
| Human Intervention Challenges | Difficulty controlling increasingly autonomous systems | Medium-High |
Broader Risk Management Context
The Gartner findings align with broader enterprise risk management trends observed across the industry. According to the 14th Annual Executive Risk Survey by NC State's ERM Initiative and Protiviti, which surveyed 1,540 global executives, top near-term risks (2026-2028) include cyber threats, third-party risks, emerging technology adoption requiring workforce upskilling, legacy IT infrastructure gaps, and economic conditions.
Similarly, Protiviti's 2026 Global Top Risks and Opportunities Report reveals that 69% of executives see significant revenue growth opportunities in the next 2-3 years, while cybersecurity ranks as the top global risk and investment priority. AI integration is a major strategic focus, with 31% of leaders prioritizing it, though IT infrastructure readiness presents a significant barrier.
Implications for Business Leaders
The dual focus on economic uncertainty and AI risk management presents unique challenges for organizations. Risk leaders must navigate traditional economic concerns while simultaneously addressing the complex risks associated with advanced AI technologies. This requires a balanced approach that considers both immediate financial stability and long-term technological transformation.
Organizations should consider implementing the following strategies:
- Develop comprehensive economic scenario planning
- Establish robust AI governance frameworks
- Implement continuous risk monitoring systems
- Invest in workforce upskilling for AI integration
- Create contingency plans for economic downturns
Gartner's Research Methodology
Gartner, founded in 1979, is a leading research and advisory company that provides business and technology insights to organizations worldwide. The company is known for its influential analytical frameworks including the Gartner Hype Cycle and Magic Quadrant. The Hype Cycle tracks the maturity and adoption of emerging technologies through five phases: Technology Trigger, Peak of Inflated Expectations, Trough of Disillusionment, Slope of Enlightenment, and Plateau of Productivity.
For this particular survey, Gartner collected data from 367 senior risk and assurance executives during the final quarter of 2025, ensuring representation across various industries and geographic regions. The methodology follows Gartner's established research standards, providing actionable insights for risk management professionals.
FAQ: Gartner 2026 Risk Report
What is agentic AI?
Agentic AI refers to artificial intelligence systems that can operate autonomously with minimal human intervention, making decisions and taking actions independently to achieve specific goals.
Why is the low-growth economic environment a top concern?
The low-growth economic environment relates to financial instability, trade concerns, high unemployment, and inflation, creating uncertainty for business operations and growth prospects.
How many executives were surveyed for this report?
Gartner surveyed 367 senior risk and assurance executives during the fourth quarter of 2025 to compile this emerging risk report.
What other risks are highlighted in the report?
Beyond economic concerns and agentic AI risks, the report likely addresses geopolitical tensions, environmental issues, cybersecurity threats, and regulatory compliance challenges.
How can organizations prepare for these risks?
Organizations should develop comprehensive risk management strategies, invest in AI governance frameworks, implement economic scenario planning, and prioritize workforce development for technological adaptation.
Sources
Gartner Press Release: Low-Growth Economic Environment Top Concern
IT Online: Low Growth Seen as Top Risk
