Global Food Price Monitoring: Export Controls and Supply Chain Risks

Global Food Price Monitoring Update: Export Controls and Supply Chain Risks

As 2025 unfolds, global food systems face mounting pressure from export controls, supply chain vulnerabilities, and government policy responses aimed at stabilizing domestic markets. The delicate balance between national food security and international trade cooperation is being tested as countries implement measures that could inadvertently exacerbate global hunger.

Rising Export Restrictions and Their Global Impact

According to the Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker maintained by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), there are currently 30 active export control measures globally, with 15 newly added from November 2024 to April 2025. Countries like India, Russia, Ukraine, and others maintain various restrictions on commodities including sugar, rice, wheat, and fertilizers.

Armenia has implemented a six-month ban on wheat and grains, while China maintains urea fertilizer export quotas, and Uzbekistan imposes export duties on flour and rice. These measures, while intended to protect domestic consumers, create ripple effects across global markets. 'When major exporters restrict shipments, importing nations face immediate price shocks and supply shortages,' explains Dr. Maria Chen, a food policy analyst at IFPRI.

U.S. Executive Order Targets Anti-Competitive Behavior

In a significant policy move, President Donald J. Trump signed Executive Order 14364 on December 6, 2025, addressing national security risks from price fixing and anti-competitive behavior in the U.S. food supply chain. The order establishes Food Supply Chain Security Task Forces within both the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission to investigate food-related industries.

'An affordable and secure food supply is vital to America's national and economic security, but anti-competitive behavior—especially by foreign-controlled corporations—threatens this stability,' states the executive order. The task forces are authorized to take enforcement actions, propose regulatory approaches, and initiate criminal proceedings if evidence of collusion is found in sectors including meat processing, seeds, fertilizer, and equipment.

Tariff Policies and Their Agricultural Consequences

On February 1, 2025, the Trump administration imposed tariffs of 10% on imports from China and 25% on imports from Mexico and Canada, though these were later paused for Mexico and Canada. While intended to protect domestic industries, economists warn that such measures could have severe consequences for agricultural markets.

'The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to trade disruptions,' notes agricultural economist Dr. Robert Johnson. 'We saw in 2018 how U.S. soybean exports to China plummeted by over $25 billion due to retaliatory tariffs. Long-term tariff policies could significantly reshape global grain markets.'

Global Food Security Outlook

The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 report, jointly published by FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO, highlights how persistent food price inflation continues to undermine global hunger reduction efforts. Despite some recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic, the world remains far from achieving Sustainable Development Goal targets for ending hunger and improving nutrition by 2030.

High food price inflation is directly associated with increased food insecurity and child malnutrition, particularly affecting low-income populations, women, and rural communities. The report calls for coherent fiscal and monetary policies, resilient trade systems, and sustained investment in agrifood systems to build long-term food security.

Policy Responses and International Cooperation

The OECD monitors and analyzes export restrictions on staple crops such as wheat, rice, and corn, examining their impact on global food markets, price volatility, and food security in importing nations. 'Export restrictions can exacerbate global food price spikes and disrupt supply chains,' says OECD trade policy director Jean-Luc Martin. 'We advocate for transparent, predictable trade policies to minimize market disruptions while ensuring food availability.'

Countries are walking a tightrope between protecting domestic consumers and maintaining international trade flows. While export controls may provide short-term relief for local populations, they risk triggering retaliatory measures and reducing overall global food availability.

Looking Ahead: Building Resilient Food Systems

As governments navigate these complex challenges, experts emphasize the need for coordinated international responses. The IFPRI Global Food Policy Report outlines priorities for building more resilient, sustainable, and equitable food systems, addressing key issues such as climate change adaptation, food security, nutrition, and trade policies.

'The current patchwork of export controls and trade restrictions creates uncertainty for farmers, traders, and consumers alike,' concludes Dr. Chen. 'What we need are multilateral agreements that balance national food security concerns with the reality of our interconnected global food system.'

With food prices remaining volatile and supply chains under pressure, 2025 represents a critical juncture for global food governance. The decisions made by governments in the coming months will have lasting implications for food security worldwide.