Sweden Election 2026: Exit Poll Shows Center-Left Lead

The Swedish parliamentary election 2026 delivered a dramatic opening result on Sunday night, as the first exit poll from public broadcaster SVT put the center-left opposition bloc at 51.3 percent against 46.8 percent for the governing right-wing alliance. Polls closed at 20:00 local time after a campaign that had long been forecast as a neck-and-neck race, and the initial numbers suggest former prime minister Magdalena Andersson could be on course to return to power. With the 349-seat Riksdag requiring a majority to govern, the count over the coming hours will determine whether Sweden is headed for a political change of direction.

What the exit poll shows

SVT's first exit poll projected the center-left bloc — led by Andersson's Social Democrats together with the Greens, the Left Party and the Centre Party — at 51.3 percent. The right-wing bloc, anchored by incumbent Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson's Moderate Party, stood at 46.8 percent. The Social Democrats alone were projected to win 28.4 percent of the vote, making them by far the largest party.

Kristersson's conservative Moderate Party received 18.1 percent in the projection, while the radical-right Sweden Democrats — who have never before entered a Swedish government — were estimated at 17.2 percent.

Background: Sweden's shifting political landscape

Sweden has been governed for the past four years by a minority administration of the Moderate Party, Christian Democrats and Liberals, which has relied on the parliamentary support of the Sweden Democrats. Ahead of the vote, Kristersson promised the Sweden Democrats cabinet seats if the right-wing bloc won, turning the election into a referendum on whether a party with far-right Sweden Democrats' neo-Nazi roots should join the government. The issue dominated the final weeks of the campaign.

More than eight million of Sweden's 10.6 million people were eligible to vote, and early voting began on August 26. Unlike the 2022 Swedish parliamentary election, which delivered a razor-thin right-bloc majority of 176–173, this year's contest was shaped by crime, immigration, cost of living and Sweden's NATO membership.

What happens next in coalition talks

If the exit poll holds, Andersson will still need to assemble a majority coalition. Speaking to supporters, she struck a cautious but confident tone: If this result stands, Sweden will have a new government. However, she called for patience, noting that every vote must be counted before final results are certified, expected by Wednesday.

Kristersson, meanwhile, insisted the race remained an open question. Experts in Swedish coalition politics point out that the gap between the blocs is within the margin of error for exit polls, and that updated SVT forecasts later Sunday may narrow the picture considerably.

Impact and implications for Sweden and Europe

The result carries weight far beyond Stockholm. A center-left victory would deny the Sweden Democrats a historic entry into government and reshape Sweden's approach to migration, welfare and climate policy. Conversely, if the right bloc closes the gap during the count, Europe's far-right parties would see a major symbolic breakthrough in one of the EU's largest economies.

Andersson has repeatedly warned against giving ministerial posts to a party with neo-Nazi origins, saying many voters feel it's enough now. The rise of right-wing populism in Scandinavia will be closely watched by Brussels and other EU capitals in the coming days.

FAQ: Swedish parliamentary election 2026

Who won the Swedish election 2026?

The first exit poll gave the center-left opposition bloc 51.3 percent and the right-wing bloc 46.8 percent, but no winner has been confirmed pending full vote counts.

How many seats does the Swedish Riksdag have?

The Riksdag has 349 seats, and 175 are needed for a majority government.

Which parties are in the center-left bloc?

The center-left bloc includes the Social Democrats, the Greens, the Left Party and the Centre Party.

Could the Sweden Democrats enter government?

Yes, Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson promised them cabinet seats if the right-wing bloc won, but an opposition victory would keep them out.

When will final Swedish election results be known?

Preliminary results were expected within hours of polls closing, with final certification likely by Wednesday, September 16, 2026.