Bitcoin Bull Run Could Extend Through 2026: Expert Analysis

Bitcoin's Traditional Four-Year Cycle May Be Broken

In a surprising shift from conventional crypto wisdom, leading macro analysts are challenging Bitcoin's traditional four-year cycle, suggesting that the current bull market could extend well into 2026. Julien Bittel, head of macro research at Global Macro Investor (GMI), argues that the widely accepted pattern tied to Bitcoin halving events is no longer the primary driver of price movements.

'The four-year cycle was never about the halving, but was always driven by the public debt refinancing cycle,' Bittel stated in a recent analysis shared on social media. 'This cycle is now officially broken because the average maturity of public debt has increased.'

Macroeconomic Factors Take Center Stage

According to Bittel's research, the post-COVID fiscal policy environment has fundamentally altered market dynamics. The traditional four-year rhythm has been pushed out by approximately one year due to changes in government debt management and broader economic conditions. This shift means that what many investors assumed was a predictable pattern may no longer apply.

The analysis suggests that Bitcoin's price movements are now more closely tied to macroeconomic factors like global liquidity, monetary policy, and financial conditions rather than the crypto-specific halving events that have historically driven cycles. This represents a significant maturation of Bitcoin as an asset class, moving it closer to traditional financial markets in terms of what influences its value.

Technical Indicators Support Extended Bull Run

Bittel's analysis incorporates technical indicators that suggest the current market conditions could support continued upward momentum. Bitcoin's Relative Strength Index (RSI) recently approached oversold levels below 37, close to the threshold of 30 that has historically signaled major buying opportunities.

Historical data shows that when Bitcoin's RSI drops below 30, the market has nearly always rebounded significantly. The last time this occurred was in December 2022 when Bitcoin traded around $16,500, after which it surged approximately 660% to reach new all-time highs.

'The biggest mistake investors can make right now is assuming every correction signals the start of a new bear market,' noted another analyst who supports Bittel's view. 'The macroeconomic setup still points to an extended cycle through 2026.'

Institutional Adoption Changing Market Dynamics

The changing cycle dynamics coincide with Bitcoin's increasing institutional adoption. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024 brought significant institutional capital into the market, reducing volatility and changing how Bitcoin responds to market events. According to Grayscale analysis, Bitcoin's price now correlates more closely with global M2 money supply and macroeconomic liquidity than with halving events.

This institutional presence has created a more stable market structure, with annualized volatility dropping from historical levels above 150% to more moderate ranges. The reduced volatility supports the argument that Bitcoin is maturing as an asset class and that traditional crypto cycles may be evolving.

Price Targets and Market Outlook

Based on his analysis of oversold conditions and historical patterns, Bittel suggests Bitcoin could potentially reach $170,000 to $180,000 within months if historical precedents repeat. However, he cautions that this represents a framework rather than a precise prediction, emphasizing that outcomes depend on broader economic conditions.

Bitcoin recently traded around $86,600, down from its 2025 high above $90,000 but still significantly above previous cycle levels. The recent price decline of approximately 4.2% over the past week is viewed by proponents of the extended cycle theory as normal volatility within a longer-term upward trend.

Diverging Views in the Analyst Community

Not all analysts agree with the extended cycle thesis. Some traditionalists maintain that Bitcoin's four-year pattern remains intact, pointing to historical consistency across multiple cycles. Others argue that while institutional adoption has changed some dynamics, the fundamental scarcity mechanism created by halving events continues to drive long-term value appreciation.

The debate reflects broader uncertainty in crypto markets as Bitcoin transitions from a niche digital asset to a mainstream financial instrument. What's clear is that the market is experiencing significant structural changes that challenge conventional wisdom about how Bitcoin cycles operate.

As 2025 draws to a close, investors face a complex landscape where traditional crypto indicators must be weighed against broader macroeconomic factors. Whether Bitcoin's bull run extends through 2026 or follows more traditional patterns, the evolving market dynamics suggest that crypto investing is becoming increasingly sophisticated and integrated with global financial systems.