EU Enlargement Momentum Builds Amid Geopolitical Shifts
The European Commission's 2025 enlargement report reveals a Union actively preparing for its most significant expansion in decades, with ten candidate countries at various stages of the accession process. The assessment comes at a critical geopolitical moment, with Russia's war against Ukraine injecting new urgency into the EU's enlargement strategy. 'A united continent is the strongest response to those who seek to divide and destabilise Europe,' declared European Commissioner for Enlargement Marta Kos during the report's presentation in Brussels.
Frontrunners Set Ambitious Timelines
Montenegro and Albania emerge as the clear frontrunners in the accession race. Montenegro, which began negotiations in 2012, aims to complete talks by the end of 2026. The Commission praised Podgorica's 'continued political commitment' and tangible reform results, though it noted democratic institutions remain fragile and vulnerable to political crises. Montenegro must improve its track record in high-level corruption prosecutions and enhance judicial efficiency, according to the official assessment.
Albania, a candidate since 2014, targets 2027 for membership completion. The report highlights significant progress in justice reform and combating organized crime, but stresses that implementation and consolidation of democratic systems remain fundamental conditions. 'We must make an effort to change the narrative toward the EU,' acknowledged Serbian National Assembly Speaker Ana Brnabić, reflecting on similar challenges across the region.
Ukraine and Moldova: Resilience Amid Conflict
Ukraine and Moldova have made remarkable progress despite facing unprecedented challenges from Russian aggression. Ukraine must accelerate reforms to meet its 2028 target, with the Commission noting the country 'has continued to show remarkable resilience and strong commitment to its European path despite the escalation of Russia's ongoing war of aggression.' However, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán continues to block Ukraine's accession talks, creating a significant obstacle.
Moldova has demonstrated particular progress, with Commissioner Kos stating the country 'has made the biggest one-year progress from all the candidates.' Despite facing Russian destabilization attempts and energy security threats, Chisinau maintains its objective to conclude negotiations by early 2028.
Western Balkans: Mixed Progress and Political Challenges
The report reveals a mixed picture across the Western Balkans. Serbia's reform implementation 'has slowed down significantly' due to increased political polarization and year-long protests. The Commission specifically criticized the 'anti-EU narrative evident not only in Serbian media outlets but also used by political office holders, including at highest levels.'
Bosnia and Herzegovina shows opportunities for acceleration despite political crises, having submitted its Reform Agenda and made progress in aligning legislation with EU standards. North Macedonia maintains full alignment with EU foreign policy and continues engagement in regional initiatives, though constitutional changes remain necessary for advancement.
Stalled Processes and Strategic Considerations
Georgia and Türkiye face essentially frozen accession processes. 'Georgia has no viable path to the EU at this stage unless conditions change dramatically,' Commissioner Kos stated, citing the government's crackdown on opponents and shift toward Moscow. Türkiye shows further backsliding on fundamental rights and rule-of-law standards.
The Commission emphasizes that enlargement is no longer optional but a strategic necessity. For the first time, the report spells out the need for 'stronger safeguards' in future accession treaties to prevent backsliding on commitments. As Polish Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski noted, 'EU membership is not an obligation but a free choice made by a country and its citizens.'
The EU is considering internal reforms to accommodate new members, including potential transition periods and voting restrictions for newcomers. This reflects lessons learned from previous enlargements where countries like Hungary have stymied the bloc's functioning while backtracking on rule-of-law commitments.
The Road Ahead
With 2026 identified as a 'moment of truth for all candidate countries,' the coming year will be crucial for determining which nations can maintain reform momentum. The enlargement process remains strictly merit-based, requiring unanimous approval from all 27 current member states even after negotiations conclude. As the EU prepares for its next chapter, the strategic imperative of enlargement in response to geopolitical challenges has never been clearer.